# Prem Sagar Poudel
Nepal’s politics has become more complicated after the ruling coalition filed an impeachment motion against the Chief Justice in Parliament. This can be analyzed in this way to become clearer about the latest developments.
Desire of the UML:
# Expelled 12 lawmakers, including Madhav Nepal from the court
# Farewell to Speaker Agni Prasad Sapkota.
# Taking political advantage from the MCC by dragging the CPN (MC) and the CPN (US) in it.
# Creating an environment to break the alliance and go to the polls without alliance.
# To keep the Maoists and the Unified Socialists out of the government by supporting the Congress.
Condition:
After the ruling coalition filed an impeachment against the Chief Justice, the issue of taking action on12 MPs is in dilemma. The issue raised in the case yesterday was postponed after the indictment.
After the MCC is presented in the House, the UML cannot continue the obstruction in the parliament. When the parliament is opened, the issue of taking action on the 12 MPs or resignation of the speaker is ignored. This is the political defeat of the UML.
The impeachment did not break the alliance but strengthened the alliance. This could have a long-term effect on UML’s politics.
Alternatives to the UML:
To form the clear idea on MCC. As the general public is against the MCC, it seems that the UML has to decide to stand against MCC in the parliament and protest.
If the UML is able to counter the MCC, then the UML will get the political benefits than the Maoists and the Unified Socialists who are trying to escape from the MCC. The image of UML can be good among the general public.
Only by standing against the MCC in the parliament the UML can save itself from falling into the pit created by the ruling coalition. Otherwise, the UML will fall into the trap set by the ruling coalition, especially CPN (MC) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal and CPN (US) Chairman Madhav Nepal.
By filing impeachment motion against the four Supreme Court judges, UML can make it a matter of bargaining with the ruling party. In such a case, the impeachment of the Chief Justice may be withdrawn.
UML should emphasize on raising the issue of resignation of the Speaker in a concentrated manner. Raising the issue that the whole process has been halted due to the Speaker, and indirectly put pressure on the Americans that the MCC has been halted due to Chairman Dahal. That could force Dahal to take side of the MCC.
Desire of the Congress:
Nepali Congress President and Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba wants to lead the government till the election. He will not be ready to break the alliance unless the UML creates an atmosphere of trust for strong support.
Deuba is trying to win the trust of the United States by getting the MCC approved by the parliament anyway. According to him, the United States will be visible in Nepal through the Indo-Pacific Strategy. At that time, all parties will have to clarify their position. Deuba is thinking of showing that the Nepali Congress is a trusted party of the United States by being close to the Americans right now.
Deuba is ready to do anything for MCC. He is ready to accept all the conditions of the parties for passing the MCC.
Congress wants to go to the upcoming election alone. Congress fears that there will be coordination between the UML and the Maoists. Therefore, the Congress has not been able to find an alternative to the ruling coalition.
Condition:
Congress did not want to file an impeachment against Chief Justice Rana. The Congress defeated against the stand of CPN (MC) Chairman Dahal and CPN (US) Chairman Nepal.
If the impeachment is not passed or if the UML imposes impeachment on four other judges, the Congress will be most affected by this decision of the Congress.
Congress is clear about MCC. However, due to the letter written by CPN (MC) Chairman Dahal and the Prime Minister and Congress Chairman Deuba and the explanation sought by the Finance Minister, the NC has been facing difficulties one after another. This difficulty raises the question in the credibility of the Congress.
Alternative of the Congress:
Getting out from the trap of impeachment as much as possible is the best option for the Congress. It is clear to the Congress that the damage caused by the impeachment of the previous Chief Justice Sushila Karki.
Creating an environment for going to the polls alone is another option for the Congress. Since the Congress is clear about the MCC, if they can get it to the polls by submitting it to the parliament, then the Congress will be successful to some extent. This will put even more pressure on the Maoists and the Unified Socialists to take the side of the MCC as the alliance continues.
If the Maoists and the Unified Socialists run away from the decision-making process on the MCC issue, the United States will give more pressure to the Congress to secede from the alliance. This pressure is likely to continue till the next election.
The Congress seems to have lost on both the issues of Ananda Vatas and Cholendra Shamsher Rana. The Maoists and the Unified Socialists seem to be moving forward with greater clarity. In such situation, the Congress will only incur losses. Therefore, the Congress should have taken the only one alternative issue of taking the MCC to the parliament.
Desire of the Maoists:
Recent political developments seem to revolve around CPN (MC) Chairman Dahal’s ambitions. Even the first wish of the Maoists seems to be more focused on taking advantage of all the good work put forward by this government.
Dahal has to become the leader of Nepal’s largest communist party. For that, Dahal has move forward amidst the compulsion to finish UML at any condition. Therefore, he does not hesitate to argue that the work that was not done was due to the UML.
Even when the MCC was not passed, Dahal had been blaming the UML. He tried to escape saying that MCC did not move forward because of UML. After a letter was written to the MCC headquarters about passing the MCC with Deuba, Dahal has been finding it difficult to save face. His double character has become clear to the general public.
Only Dahal has the key to pass the MCC. However, he has not been able to use that key properly. His desire to establish a new relationship with the United States has not been fulfilled due to his dual character.
The CPN (MC) plans to admit speaker in the hospital making him sick after tabling the MCC in the parliament. Meanwhile, the House of Representatives comes under the charge of Mahanta Thakur as a senior member. After Thakur will table the MCC for decision, the speaker will be discharged from the hospital.
To table the MCC in parliament is to embarrass the UML. Now the UML has been escaping saying that MCC is a matter of the government. The CPN (MC) seems to be moving ahead with the idea of fleeing after decisively presenting the MCC in the parliament. In such a situation, it seems that the MCC will pass only if the largest party UML desires.
The Maoists seem to be thinking of postponing the election scheduled for next Baishakh (May). Therefore, they seem to have paid more attention to the activities that affect the electorate.
Condition:
Despite trying to show that the US is far away, the letter that has been made public recently seems to have embarrassed Dahal. He is now in delimma and facing difficulties. He has promised to pass the MCC with the Americans. Not to pass, there is no consensus within the party on this issue.
Dahal’s activism seems to have increased in recent times as he has been facing difficulties. At a meeting in Baluwatar on February 12, Dahal moved the middle lane to pass the MCC. Accordingly, the Nepali Congress was ready to bring impeachment against Chief Justice JBR.
According to the constitution of Nepal, the issue of passing the MCC by the parliament is currently in dispute. Therefore, the subject of this dispute could go to the court. The Constitutional Court was equally likely to interpret it. Since he could not get the support of Rana in that work, Deuba was ready to look for an alternative to Rana on the advice of the Americans. Dahal’s interest was met here with Deuba.
By saying that we are anti-MCC among the general public without participating in the process, Dahal wants to send a message to the Americans that the MCC was passed because of him. That is why he has come up with a new way to take the MCC debate to the parliament and the Maoists will not participate in the parliament.
If the UML impeaches four judges, Dahal’s plan will not work. Due to which he seems to be getting more and more embarrassed.
Alternatives to the Maoists:
The Maoists do not have many options. So they seem to be playing more on fewer issues. Many times while playing like this, they have started chipping away. Therefore, playing safely is the only option for the Maoists.
By trapping the UML in the MCC, the CPN (MC) seems to want to attract the UML cadres.
In the current situation where no country believes, the Maoist chairman wants to be closer to the United States. Passing MCC, from which he is trying to move this relationship forward.
Desire of the Unified Socialist:
Protecting the party is the first wish of CPN (Unified Socialist) Chairman Madhav Nepal. His party will not be spared when the court declares 12 MPs illegal.
He wants to move forward with European-backed legal practitioners. He has been working in the court with the idea of creating a conducive environment for legal practitioners including Shambhu Thapa. With this in mind, Nepal had persuaded CPN (MC) Chairman Dahal to file an indictment against Chief Justice Rana.
It is Nepal’s wish to sack the UML. However, it remains to be seen to what extent this wish will be fulfilled. He has moved ahead with the idea of not holding elections on time. It seems that Nepal has now estimated the increase in the number of people leaving the organization after the election.
Nepal wants MCC not to be passed as much as possible. He doesn’t need anyone else because he has the support of the Europeans.
Condition:
Although the expansion of the organization has not been successful, the Unified Socialists are now pursuing a policy of profit. As per their wish, the cases pending in the court are being pushed back. Nepal’s Lalitaniwas land issue has not been able to move forward.
Sister-wing organizations have joined the movement against the MCC. Therefore, they are thinking of not participating in any MCC process.
Nepal’s relationship with Deuba is still not good. Dahal is connecting him with Deuba. In such a situation, without Dahal, Nepal is unlikely to get a good place in the ruling coalition.
Alternative to the Unified Socialist:
So far, the issue of the MCC, Unified Socialist seems clear. Although there is no alternative in national politics, Europeans seem to be close to socialists. As a result, they are in a position to form a clear view on national issues.
Their greatest strength is being able to make a decision in court according to what they wish. From the establishment of Parliament to the impeachment of the Chief Justice, according to them, the court process has moved forward. Saving the party is the biggest issue for them. This is how Nepal’s politics as a whole can be viewed. Many issues are now linked to MCC. As the issue of MCC becomes clearer, many issues seem to become clearer as well.
UML’s decision on MCC also determines whether MCC will remain in Nepal or not. Therefore, the future of the MCC has come to the court of UML.
The impeachment has tried to surround the UML. After the impeachment, UML will face more difficulties. Some of the decisions made by the UML government can now be reversed through the court process.
