# Prem Sagar Poudel
US Fukuyama’s claim to postmodernism is turning into vain. The US will lose if it fails to formulate a strategy at the ideological level !
Kurt Campbell, the US coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs, said the US strategy to confuse China in the South China Sea would not work, adding that a new strategy was needed to understand current China better. Chinese President Xi Jinping is a highly intellectual and he won’t be misguided by the emotions, and he claims that the United States will not succeed without a strategy from that level. Citing the example of the Quad (a military alliance envisioned as the Asian NATO), he suggested that an alliance be formed at the ideological level. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the ideological history of the world came to an end and there was no alternative to consumerism, asking Fukuyama to write a story of American inevitability, the United States is now coming to the conclusion that it has no choice but to move beyond the ideological level to fight China.
Considering his statement as important, I have tried to connect the context with Nepal. It is not possible to move forward without finding a solution in the intellectual level of thought to the kind of crisis that is growing all over the world and in Nepal. The thinking, ideas and state system used so far have completely failed. The emptiness created by this cannot be solved by the change of individual or party alone. Therefore, this is the reason for emphasizing on the fundamental vision, fundamental mission, national ideology and the debate on the state system according to our needs. Nothing can lead the country except fundamental ideological schooling. It is necessary to understand it in time.
In Nepal, there are many alternative liars who try to mislead Nepalese under the cover of protest against the government by spreading big and trivial gossip. Their emphasis is on ripping off the minister’s job as if opposing the so-called mainstream parties and turning Nepalese around in the rotten western system. Oli, Sher Bahadur, Prachanda, Baburam, Madhav are other forms of elements who are trying to exploit the Nepali mentality by raising a number of administrative and emotional agendas such as good governance, end of corruption, transparency and honesty. They are trying to maintain the status quo by talking cheaply.
The individual is working within a state mechanism. That mechanism is operated by the system. The basis of the system is an ideology and that ideology is guided by some thought or philosophy. Changing the person or party in power alone will not improve the bad state system. The problem of the country is where the source of the problem is and what motivates the parties towards crime. No matter which person or party you choose, from the group whose mind has become a criminal by thoughts and ideas, the result will be the same. In the eyes of the Americans, the problem they face is not China’s economy or Russia’s military might. The problem is the new thinking of China and Russia, driving the world. Lately, US policy and steps have been aimed in this direction, whose ugly face is beginning to be seen in Nepal’s politics and budget.
The ugly face of the budget:
During KP Oli’s tenure, foreign debt increased by Rs 7 trillion, while during Oli’s rule, per capita foreign debt has increased from Rs 28,000 to Rs 55,000.
Out of the total budget of Rs. 1,647.57 billion, the total amount allocated to the central, state and local bodies for recurrent expenditure (salaries, allowances, facilities, banquets, travel, etc. in unproductive sectors) is Rs. 925.74 billion. The total amount allocated to the central, state and local bodies in the name of development is Rs. 408.23 billion. 207.97 billion has been allocated for the field of financial management. The total amount allocated for current expenditure and financial management is Rs. 1,133.71 billion. Compared to these two amounts, the capital (so-called) budget is 4 times less.
Recurrent expenditure for the center is Rs. 678.61 billion and development expenditure is Rs. 347.26 billion. However, the development expenditure includes not only new development but also old schemes abandoned by the corrupt.
The provinces have been allocated Rs. 74.22 billion for recurrent expenditure or Rs. 10.60 billion for one province and Rs. 29.48 billion for development and Rs. 4.21 billion for one province on an average. Recurrent expenditure has been allocated two and a half times more than development expenditure.
The current expenditure of 753 local bodies has been allocated Rs. 251.52 billion, which is an average of Rs. 334.04 million, has been allocated to one local body. The total amount allocated to all the local bodies in the name of development is Rs. 31.49 billion, which is on an average; a local body has only Rs. 41.831 million. Current expenditure is eight times more than development expenditure.
The election expenditure allocated under the pretext of elections is Rs. 35 billion, which is Rs. 6 billion more than the total development budget allocated in the name of all the seven provinces. The Goji expenditure (pocket money) allocated to party cadres in the name of 100 days (for 100 days only) Prime Minister’s Self-Employment Program is Rs. 12 billion. The amount allocated in the name of elections and self-employment is 16 billion more than the total development expenditure allocated to 753 local bodies across the country.
Scenes of recent political activities:
In recent times, Nepali politics has been in turmoil again. With the decision of Prime Minister KP Oli not to take a vote of confidence from the parliament on Thursday, June 20, a new wave has been seen in politics. In a cabinet meeting held after the CPN-UML parliamentary party meeting on Thursday, May 27, Prime Minister Oli himself said, “I am a little more upset today. The court’s decision made me very tense.’
The Supreme Court on Thursday afternoon dismissed six ministers who were not members of parliament. Leaders including Ram Bahadur Thapa, who came to UML from UCPN (Maoist), were dismissed after the court decision. After the dissolution of the House of Representatives by Prime Minister Oli in 5th Poush, their management has been becoming a complicated issue for the Oli faction.
After the court’s decision to return the NCP (NCP) to its previous state on 23rd Falgun, they wanted to stay in the UML. In other words, they even sided with Oli by risking their parliamentary seat. On 28th Falgun, a decision was made to manage them. The Khanal-Nepal faction is still against Oli saying that they will not accept such a decision taken by the UML Central Committee meeting. The Khanal-Nepal group has been saying that they will not abide by the party’s decision.
Where the environment deteriorated:
Attempts were made to stop Oli before he became Prime Minister for the second time. Jhala Nath Khanal stood against the tradition of the party Chairman becoming the leader of the parliamentary party. Khanal was supported by another leader Madhav Kumar Nepal. Even this could not stop Oli. Oli was elected leader of the parliamentary party. Before the election, Oli had reached an agreement with UCPN (Maoist) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal as the party Chairman on the issues ranging from going to the polls to party unification.
Even the leaders who easily won the election by taking advantage of the decision of the UML and the Maoists to form a united front were not in favor of Oli. Along with Nepal, who was thinking of displacing Oli as much as possible, Bamdev Gautam was later added along with Khanal. Gautam’s understanding was that he lost the election because of Oli. In the second election of the Constituent Assembly, Gautam, who had reached Pyuthan from Bardiya, had again reached Bardiya and contested the election.
Gautam, who is close to the Maoists, thought he would win the election easily. But at the local level, there was a heated debate over how Gautam benefited them. He could not understand the dissatisfaction of the people in time. The result of which was not as he thought. In the first phase after the establishment of the NCP (NCP), a dispute was raised over the party’s portfolio. The center of the controversy was- leader Jhala Nath Khanal.
After the defeat of the UML in the first Constituent Assembly election, he decided to resign from the post of General Secretary. Prior to this, Oli had suffered the most in the Nepal group. The Oli faction, which also has some members in the Central Committee, was insulted lots from the Nepal faction. Others became a distant matter. Even Bishnu Poudel and Ishwar Pokhrel, who are now seen closest to Oli, were in the campaign to finish the Oli faction by staying in the Nepal group. Raising himself from such a situation, Oli succeeded in establishing himself as an important leader during the drafting of the constitution.
Oli was a fierce critic of the Maoists. Gautam was like a Maoist leader within the UML. Oli was a leader like the Nepali Congress within the UML. Oli was accompanied by the then Congress president Girija Prasad Koirala more than the UML leaders. Because of Koirala’s support, Oli was closely accepted by Nepali Congress leaders. Koirala even supported Oli to win at the UML’s eighth general convention in Butwal.
Koirala, who went to address the inauguration ceremony of the UML General Convention as a guest, also persuaded Nepal to be Oli’s ally. In this regard, Koirala had assured Nepal to create an environment for him to become the Prime Minister. Nepal, defeated in the first Constituent Assembly, was created by Maoist leader Dahal to become an MP. Congress leader Koirala supported Nepal in the PM’s post.
This incident made it clear that there was no lasting basis for inter-party relations in Nepal. During the active reign of King Gyanendra Nepal’s image as a deposed leader, who had joined the government saying that regression was half corrected, was developed. Nepal worked hard to bring the Maoists into the peace process. Due to which, the mistakes made by Nepal during the active period of the king were covered up. Despite this, Nepal’s relationship with Koirala was not so strong. Instead, Oli had the opportunity to improve relations with Nepali Congress leaders in the shadow of Koirala. The same relationship seems to have kept him close to the Congress leaders even now. In recent times, this relationship of more than a decade and a half has also broken down.
The National Assembly election of Bagmati Pradesh was held on 6th Jeshth. It was decided that the Nepali Congress and the UCPN (M) would support Khim Lal Devkota, who had put forward by the Nepal side in the election. On the evening of 21st Baishakh, Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba, UCPN (M) Central Committee Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal and leader Nepal agreed to make Devkota the common candidate. A meeting of the UML Tenth General Convention Organizing Committee held in Baluwatar on 10th Baishakh had decided to nominate Ram Bahadur Thapa as its candidate.
The cabinet meeting had decided to take a vote of confidence on 19th Baishakh. Nepal’s activism had increased with the decision to convene a meeting of the House of Representatives on 27th Baishakh. Nepal and another leader Dr. Bhim Rawal were suspended from the party for six months, was seen in opposition to Oli, while some leaders were adamant that the UML should not split. Due to which, Nepal was not able to give strong support to the opposition alliance.
The Maoists and the Nepali Congress were clear on the issue of not giving a vote of confidence to Oli. Therefore, they wanted to file a no-confidence motion against Oli before 27th Baishakh. Thus, when a no-confidence motion was registered, the process of forming an alternative government would begin. In order for politics to move forward on this path, it was necessary for the MPs of the Nepal group to resign.
Nepal, who has been holding house discussions with Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba recently, made Devkota the joint candidate on the condition of resigning. This was Nepal’s first success. However, the Nepal faction’s parliamentarians did not seem ready to resign before the 27th of this month. They were absent from a special session to seek a vote of confidence to oust Oli. Deuba said that an alternative government could not be formed due to Nepal. Dahal was not so negative about Nepal.
Nepal and Janata Samadwadi Party leader Upendra Yadav had pushed Deuba, who was silent on the formation of an alternative government, to move forward. It was agreed that the Nepali Congress and the UCPN (M) would not be able to form a government but to manage the parliamentarians from JSP to make majority. Nepal had taken the responsibility of resigning the parliamentarians of his side in case of the support of JSP was not enough to form the government. Nepal had support from Dr. Rawal. Rawal had been saying that he would not bow down to Oli’s side under any circumstances.
The Nepal side made the agreement reached with Deuba a matter of bargaining within the party. They said that they would resign en masse and put forward the idea of weakening Oli. According to Oli’s plan, the Nepali side did not get much importance on 27th Baishakh. Oli’s plan was successful even when they were absent from the parliament without resigning. Oli was planning to put the government in the minority. After that, according to the constitution, he wanted to be the Prime Minister as the leader of the biggest party. He only completed the process by attending the parliament on 27.
The President called for the formation of a new government by giving time till 5 pm on 30th Baishakh. As the process of forming the government began, the Nepal side moved forward with the debate on collective resignation. If the Nepal side had resigned en masse, a government led by Congress president Deuba could have been formed. Leaders Nepal and Rawal had a discussion with Deuba at Deuba’s residence in Budhanilkantha on 28th Baishakh from 8 pm to 9 pm. They urged Deuba to move ahead in the process of forming an alternative government.
Deuba, on the other hand, said that he would not take part in any unwanted game as the party of Mahanta Thakur of Jaspa would not stand for an alternative government under any circumstances. The Thakur faction of JSP had decided to remain neutral in the formation of the government as it had on 27th Baishakh. The Budhanilkantha meeting was of the view that an alternative government could be formed if 16 members of the Nepal faction resigned. Leader Nepal had agreed to this calculation of Deuba and returned.
After the formation of an alternative government due to Nepal, more pressure was put on Oli from the morning of the 29th. On the evening of 29th Baishakh, Chairman Oli attempted a telephone conversation with Nepal. Earlier, Som Prasad Pandey, a leader close to Nepal, had met Chairman Oli in Baluwatar. Pandey, who is also a relative of Nepal, had played a positive role in creating an atmosphere for dialogue. On the basis of the information that Nepal is slowly softening, Chairman Oli sent Finance Minister and UML Organization Department Chief Bishnu Poudel to meet the leader.
After all efforts, a meeting of the standing committee held in Baluwatar at 9 o’clock decided to take action against four leaders, including Nepal, on 16th Chaitra. On the evening of the 29th, Rawal wrote on Twitter, “It is necessary to dismiss PM KP to protect further national interest, to prevent contrary to the party’s norms and undemocratic acts.” For that, we have to resign from the post of MPs and create a situation. This is politically correct and legal.”
After the action was taken, the leaders of the Nepal side set another date for collective resignation if the party did not return to its old form by 4.30 pm. The Nepal side was involved in putting pressure on Oli, but the Oli side was thinking of confusing Nepal side only up to 5 pm. The Parliament Secretariat would close after 5 p.m. After that, resignation did not make sense though the President has given the time up to 9 pm. In Budhanilkantha, Deuba was waiting for the resignation of the Nepal side after completing all the work. Deuba was preparing to run for the office of the President with the request for the appointment of the Prime Minister as soon as the Nepal side resigned.
Talks between Oli and Nepal started at 2 pm. Oli extended the conversation to 5:30 p.m. It was agreed to form a task force to resolve the dispute. The task force will submit a report on resolving the disputes in the party. Oli did not have any trust on the Nepal side. During the talks, Nepal side leader Ram Kumari Jhankri tweeted, “Don’t get confused without a concrete proposal and written consent. All this is happening at the behest of the Lord to prove that it was right to dissolve the parliament. The only option before us for the defense of the people, democracy and the constitution is rebellion. Our surrender destroys the communist movement. Let’s be careful.’
Leaders on the Nepal side did not believe that Oli would return to the status quo or before 2nd Jeshtha. However, they wanted to continue the dialogue with Oli, even if it was to show the cadres. Nepal was also in trouble due to the pressure of some second generation leaders not to leave the party. Rawal and Jhankri had been pressuring Nepal to leave the party as soon as possible. They are not convinced to co-operate with Oli.
Deuba had called a meeting of the office bearers at 4 o’clock. Earlier, UCPN (M) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal reached Budhanilkantha after concluding the meeting of the Standing Committee at Parisdanda. The UCPN (M) meeting had decided to wait for the UML’s Nepal faction to reach the required majority to form the government. Spokesperson Narayan Kaji Shrestha told reporters after the meeting, “Even though we are ready, we are waiting for the decision of the Nepal-Khanal group of the CPN-UML.” What do they decide? We will then make a formal decision on whether to form a new government.”
A meeting of Nepali Congress officials held at 4 pm concluded that the chances of forming a new majority government were very low. “Even the Mahanta faction does not seem ready to reach a majority. The Madhav faction did not seem ready either, ‘said Joint General Minister Prakash Sharan Mahat, adding that the chances of claiming a majority were very low. While the Congress was making such a conclusion public, the staff of the Parliament Secretariat was closing the door at Singha Durbar.
After three and a half hours of talks, Oli went to Baluwatar. Mahanta Thakur and Rajendra Mahato were waiting for him in Baluwatar. Thakur Mahato, who was active in Kathmandu by placing his party MPs at a resort in Bhaktapur, had decided not to support the Oli government. They were thinking that by supporting Oli now, and join in the government would send the wrong message in Madhes. Deuba, Dahal and Yadav had demanded the formation of a government under Article 76 (3) in a statement after the possibility of forming a government as per Article 76 (2) of the constitution was mooted.
After another crisis, Oli was appointed Prime Minister overnight as the leader of the largest party in parliament under Article 76 (3). Oli and Nepal held talks with the second tier leaders on 31st Baishakh to settle the dispute within the UML. It was decided to move ahead with other discussions based on the UML before 2nd Jeshtha 2075 BS. For that, Chairman Oli and senior leader Madhav Kumar Nepal sat down and finalized the task force. Leaders from the Oli faction, Subash Nemwang, Ishwar Pokharel, Vishnu Poudel, Ram Bahadur Thapa and Lumbini Chief Minister Shankar Pokharel, were present at the meeting in the office of the Prime Minister and Council of Ministry. Rawal said, the negotiation will be held immediately. Similarly, Ghanshyam Bhusal, Surendra Pandey, Raghuji Pant, Gokarna Bista and Bhim Rawal from Madhav Nepal’s side were present at the talks.
Both sides gave Oli and Nepal to finalize the decision by the task force. A meeting of Oli and Nepal held on 1st Jeshtha decided to form a five-member task force from both sides. Bishnu Poudel, Shankar Pokhrel, Pradip Gyawali and Bishnu Rimal were chosen as members of the task force from the Oli faction under the coordination of Subash Nemwang. Similarly, Gokarna Bista, Ghanshyam Bhusal, Surendra Pandey and Raghuji Pant were the members from Nepal under the coordination of Bhim Rawal.
The National Assembly is another disruption:
Ram Bahadur Thapa had said that he would not participate in the losing election. Oli convinced him to the election. Due to the late decision, Thapa reached Hetauda by helicopter to register his nomination. Devkota, on the other hand, registered his nomination with readiness. A team of Congress Bagmati Pradesh Parliamentary Party leader Indra Bahadur Baniya, CPN-Maoist Center parliamentary party leader Shalikram Jamkattel and others had reached the Bagmati Pradesh Election Commission office with Devkota to register their nominations. Devkota’s candidature was proposed by CPN-Maoist Center Bagmati Pradesh parliamentary party leader Shalikram Jamkattel and supported by Nepali Congress Bagmati Pradesh Chief Whip Radha Ghale.
The Oli faction was in a dilemma after the nomination was registered on 24th Baishakh. The Nepal side was clear about Devkota. It was not easy for the Nepal to oppose Devkota. He was seen as a leader with dishonest political leader. In particular, Congress leader Deuba had stopped believing in Nepal. “We will resign and you should go and apply for the PM’s post,” said the leader, who announced the resignation was postponed for some days at 5.30 pm. This was the biggest betrayal given to Deuba by Nepal in recent times.
UCPN (M) Chairman Dahal said indirect way that leader Nepal was not a sincere person. When Oli became Prime Minister again, he said, “I don’t want to use the word ‘betrayal’ now, because we’re still talking.” There must have been some problem inside them. As they are also fighting for the constitution and democracy, it seems that the word ‘betrayed’ is too hard for now. I hope they will continue to fight for the truth, for democracy, for the constitution, and we will meet again in one place.’
Due to Nepal, the Nepali Congress and the UCPN (M) became party less in the National Assembly elections. They agreed to vote for the independent candidate in the election symbol pen. Meanwhile, Oli became Prime Minister again. If the Nepal side had dared to resign, Oli would not have been able to become the Prime Minister again. It was another moral pressure for Nepal to side with Devkota in the National Assembly. Chairman Oli, on the other hand, wanted to show that the leader was not honest. Therefore, he sent candidate Thapa to seek support from the Nepal side on 4th Jeshtha.
Thapa sought Nepal’s assistance in the National Assembly elections. Nepal returned him with empty hands. Oli himself, who has been in touch with Nepal for the past week, could have asked for help. Such a request could have been made by telephone or by meeting only two people. In such a situation, the Nepal side could have developed the possibility of saying something for or against Devkota. But, Oli didn’t want to do that. The result was seen on 6th Jeshtha. Devkota was elected a member of the National Assembly.
The government was under a legal obligation to take a vote of confidence within a month. However, the government could have been in a constitutional crisis if the budget could not be presented on 15th Jeshtha and the government’s policies and programs to be passed before the budget. After the 6th Jeshtha results, Oli backed away from the idea of taking policies, programs and budgets to parliament. Earlier, the pre-budget discussion was delayed. Therefore, his intention was more focused on announcing the election before taking the budget to the parliament. He declared that he would not take a vote of confidence without considering the Nepal side.
The President gave 21 hours to form a 76 (5) government. Oli thought that politics would move forward according to his plan as no one would get a majority. The President had given time till 5 pm on 7th Jeshtha to claim the PM post. Oli was keen to discuss with the editors in Baluwatar. On the other hand, the Nepal side parliamentarians in Singha Durbar had collecting the sign that Nepal would be appointed the Prime Minister. After the all-party meeting held at Deuba’s residence decided to settle all issues at Singha Durbar, all the parties had called their MPs to Singha Durbar.
Deuba was not clear about the alternative government till the morning of 7th Jeshtha. He was not interested as the leader Nepal betrayed earlier to him. In the morning, Yogesh Bhattarai called Gagan Thapa and started the process. Bhattarai had proposed to Thapa saying that Nepal could be made the Prime Minister as Oli had to be removed anyway. Then the political polarization intensified. According to leader Som Prasad Pandey, Nepal had asked the parliamentarians of his side to sign that he would be the Prime Minister. Nepal, Deuba, Dahal and Yadav were present at the meeting during the signing campaign. After signing, they came out. Deuba was in a hurry to go to the President’s office. Leader Nepal said that he supported Deuba as the Prime Minister not to himself. The decision was taken at a meeting held at Deuba’s residence. Fearing that his plan would fail, leader Nepal did this trick.
After Deuba went to claim the PM’s post, Oli reached the President’s Office carrying a letter from the parliamentary party written by Mahanta Thakur. He said that he had the support of 153 lawmakers, including a letter from the UML parliamentary party. Deuba, on the other hand, was carrying 149 signatures. Saying that both these demands have not been met, the President announced the mid-term elections and fulfilled Oli’s wish.
Fear of the election:
The Nepal side, which thinks that Oli should be ousted anyway, is now afraid to go to the polls. The Nepal side, which is in the process of forming a new party, is not likely to go to the polls without taking the party to the grassroots. The Maoists are also not in the mood to go to the polls. Deuba is also scared of Oli after seeing the way taken by Shankar Pokharel, who resigned from the post of Lumbini Chief Minister, to become the Chief Minister again. They have moved forward with the idea of stopping the election to be held by Oli anyway. For that, the court is now their last hope. So they went to court with the signatures of the majority MPs.
If there is an arrangement to vaccinate against corona, the wave of people will come in favor of the government. That is why not only the Prime Minister but also the entire machinery of the President’s Office is trying to bring the vaccine. Oli seems to be in favor of going public with a popular budget and vaccinations. Others will remain in limbo until a court decision is reached. Therefore, the possibility can now be analyzed in the following points:
1. The court’s decision seems likely to be in favor of the election. Therefore, Deuba’s lawyers are thinking of removing the two judges from the bench. According to him, this will be the first happiness given to Deuba by the court. This proves that Oli’s side is weaker than Deuba’s side in the court process.
2. In the event of a court blocking the election option, the Oli faction’s desire will be to restore parliament. By doing so, the court will leave the task of forming the government to the President through legal process. Oli will once again increase his weight by taking action against the Nepal and Yadav side MPs.
3. Deuba’s side wants the court to decide on Deuba’s appointment as Prime Minister. If this wish is fulfilled, none of Oli’s cards will work. Oli has no choice but to stay in the opposition. However, the government of 76 (5) must take a vote of confidence within a month. Until then, the Oli faction will take action against Nepal side MPs and dismissed their post. In such a situation, Deuba will have to go to the polls in his leadership.
4. There is also a small possibility of making the party unity by negotiating with the Nepal side. Speaking in a digital interaction held by the Nepal Students’ Union on 17th Jeshtha, the leader Nepal asked Gokarna Bista to resolve the issue of the united party within a day or two. In that case, Oli would easily become Prime Minister if the court reconstituted the parliament.
5. Europeans seem to have more influence in the courts. If that influence works, Oli’s wish will not be fulfilled. Now everyone who advocates on the issue is connected to Europeans. Therefore, the basis of the decision in favor of Oli does not seem so strong. However, the election is likely to be held in Baishakh, 2079 BS, even though it has not held at this time as announced by Oli cabinet. The current battle is more focused on who will hold the election only.
