China’s economic recovery gained pace in April, newly released official data showed on Tuesday, as domestic consumption has kept surging in the first four months of the year, while industrial production and fixed asset investment are both rising.
Analysts are generally upbeat about the country’s growth prospects, saying that a comprehensive economic recovery was expected to sustain in the second quarter. But they cautioned global economic uncertainties will largely remain during the second half of this year, depending on US monetary policies and the global geo-political landscape.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday, the industrial added value of major industrial enterprises in China rose by 5.6 percent in April, accelerating from a 3.9 percent growth in March.
In particular, the output of emerging industries continued to rise on a monthly basis. For example, the output of solar cells products rose by 69.1 percent on a yearly basis in April, the NBS data showed.
Another highlight in April’s data is domestic consumption, with retail sales jumping 18.4 percent during the month, up from a 10.6 percent rise in March.
The strong rebound was generally in line with market expectations, as domestic consumption ranging from car sales to tourism have kept on rebounding.
Tian Yun, a veteran macro economy observer, told the Global Times on Monday that vehicle sales remain an important driver in propelling the country’s overall growth.
In April, China’s new-energy vehicles saw output rise by 85.4 percent year-on-year, up from 27.7 percent growth in the first three months, the NBS data showed.
Data revealed by the China Automobile Dealers Association showed that the country’s car consumption index stood at 75.3 percent in April, hitting the highest point this year.
Tian said that the trend of China’s economic recovery is “solid” in the second quarter, and the economy is expected to rise by more than 6 percent this year. He previously predicted that China’s economy could expand by about 5.5 percent in 2023.
China has set a growth target of around 5 percent this year, according to this year’s Government Work Report. Domestic GDP rose by 4.5 percent in the first quarter.
But Tian cautioned the economy still faces uncertainty moving into the second half of the year, primarily due to global volatilities.
According to Tian, non-stop interest rate hikes in the US and Europe might add to intensifying financial fluctuations there, while the Ukraine crisis remains volatile.
“If the US terminates the current round of interest rate hikes along with an easing in global geo-political tensions, it may trigger a broad global economic rebound, which would also lift China’s economy to grow faster in the second half of this year compared with market expectations. But things could go both better or worse judging by changes in global situation,” he noted.
Zhou Maohua, an economist at Everbright Bank, told the Global Times that China’s economy is still in the middle of an extended rebound. And that it will still take some time for real estate sector in particular to return to sustained growth, he said.
China’s real estate investment slipped by 6.2 percent year-on-year in the first four months of this year, according to the NBS data. In general, China’s fixed-assets investment surged by 4.7 percent year-on-year in the Jan-Apr period.
(Global Times)
