# Prem Sagar Poudel
US Assistant Secretary of State Donald Lu’s visit made it clear that US interest in Nepal is not limited to the government. Assistant Secretary of State Lu connected the American relationship with the private sector which is limited between the government and the public level.
In 2005, when the quota for Nepali ready-made garments was closed, the strong relationship between the US and Nepal’s private sector was broken. In 1995, according to the rules of the World Trade Organization, when the United States announced that the quota system would be abolished after 10 years, the share of ready-made garments in Nepal’s export business was 32 percent. After the United States abolished the quota system, Nepal’s ready-made garment industry was completely destroyed.
During his visit to Nepal, Assistant Secretary Lu announced that the US would invest three billion dollars in the promotion of trade and commerce in Nepal. With his announcement, there is a hope that the US will help find a market for Nepali products. In a meeting with Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, Assistant Secretary Lu informed about such a package to cooperate with Nepal’s private sector.
On the occasion of Assistant Secretary Lu’s visit to Nepal, the US Embassy organized a workshop on promoting sustainable economic development in Nepal between businessmen and government leaders on July 28. At the conference, the acting ambassador of the embassy Manny P. Micaller (Manuel P. Micaller, Jr.), Governor of Nepal Rastra Bank Maha Prasad Adhikari and Secretary of Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Supply Arjun Pokharel expressed their views.
Assistant Secretary Lu, who arrived at Tribhuvan International Airport carrying a normal bag, has won the hearts of the common Nepalese during his stay in Nepal. He presented himself in a more normal way than the American diplomats who visited Nepal before. By publishing a video about how he came to Nepal 30 years ago, Lu tried to show that his relationship with Nepal is three decades old. During his visit to Nepal eight months ago, Lu presented himself very strongly. At that time, he had also warned that it would not be good if Nepal did not pass the MCC.
Eight months ago, when he came to Kathmandu in November 2021, he established the American Chamber of Commerce (AmChem) for the first time in Nepal. AmChem is present in many countries around the world. It has been providing support for economic promotion through American companies and products. Currently, Ajit Shah of Lotus Holding, Nirmal Shrestha of Metlife, Atulya Risal of Compliance Quest, Kailash Biyanand of Leap Frog Technology, Akash Golcha, official dealer of Ford, Raj Shah, official dealer of Budweiser Beer and Jayadin Shrestha of 5 Star Hotel Hyatt are members of Amchem Nepal.
Mangeshlal Shrestha of Frost & Sullivan, Oscar Batas, official dealer of Caterpillar, Ashim Basnet of Pathao Ridesharing, Sanjay Golcha, official dealer of Dell, Sakar Pudasaini of Karkhana and legal advisor Semant Dahal are also involved in Amchem. AmChem Nepal aims to add new members. In addition, efforts were made to expand its scope.
It seems that America is trying to train AmChem in various aspects of business, which is trying to advance with the idea of expanding the field of work throughout Nepal. The amount that the US wants to spend on the development of the private sector will also be spent through AmChem. Since the amount will not be spent outside of the Amchem membership, it will create a compelling situation for the Nepali private sector to be closer to the US.
The important question at present is why the need of Amchem, which is being developed with the support of the Nepalese government, in Nepal. The United States will gradually develop this organization as an official organization for goods exported to the United States. It seems that the importance of this organization will increase with the implementation of the system that the US buys goods from Nepal only on the recommendation of Amchem.
SPP Rumor Only
During Assistant Secretary Lu’s visit to Nepal, the Nepalese government wrote a letter to the United States regarding Nepal’s non-participation in the SPP. The Council of Ministers meeting decided to reject the SPP on June 20. Even in Parliament, the government was criticized for not sending the letter despite the decision of the Council of Ministers.
In the House of Representatives meeting on July 29, Foreign Minister Narayan Khadka informed that a letter has been sent to the US regarding the SPP. According to Minister Khadka, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had sent a letter to the American government through the American Embassy on July 25. It is said in the letter, “We do not cooperate in the SPP. We want to continue the 75-year-long bilateral relationship between Nepal and America. In addition, Nepal needs the support of the US government in disaster management and other issues. Bilaterally, the training and exchange of cooperation between the armies of the two countries should also continue.”
Another topic of analysis is why the letter written to the US about Nepal’s non-participation in the SPP was made public only after the time of Assistant Secretary Lu’s visit to Nepal. Assistant Secretary Lu made an accidental visit to Nepal. It is said that he made an emergency visit to Nepal to end the confusion about SPP. However, the government of Nepal, while Lu was in Kathmandu, wrote a letter about not participating in the SPP, just to change the topic.
SPP is a US military strategy. Another military strategy is the SOFA. Among these two strategies, SOFA seems to focus on financial support as well. The then Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai had unsuccessfully tried to sign the SOFA agreement during his visit to America. The final point through SPP or SOFA is the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS). Of course, the field is IPS. SOFA, MCC and SPP are only the route. One can travel to the field (IPS) through this route.
During the KP Oli government, Nepal agreed to play a central role in IPS. The then Foreign Minister Pradip Gyawali had reached an agreement with his American counterpart Mike Pompeo about IPS. However, Gyawali changed his statement after coming to Nepal. Especially, after the opposition of IPS, Minister Gyawali said that he did not make any agreement about IPS. However, Gyawali made it clear that he was in favor of the Americans by writing a different opinion in the task force group on the MCC issue established by the NCP at that time.
The agreement made during the time of Minister Gyawali is still alive. The latest proof of this is the participation of the Chief of Army Staff Prabhuram Sharma in the annual conference of military chiefs of the Indo-Pacific region recently held in Australia. It is very important to ask why the Nepal government gave approval to Army Chief Sharma to participate in the conference when Nepal is not a member of IPS. This question makes it clear that Nepal is a member of IPS. Military officers of 27 countries including Nepal participated in the conference.
The US has advanced this conference as an important forum for expanding strategic relations with the military leadership of the Indo-Pacific region. The conference was jointly organized by the US Army’s Indo-Pacific Command and Australia. Due to its geopolitical and strategic location, America has been considering Australia as an important country in the Indo-Pacific region. It seems that the US and Australia are establishing a strategic partnership to check and balance China. This time the conference also discussed the security strategy of the IPS region.
Another important issue is that most of the family members of Army Chief Sharma are living in Australia. After the conference, Chief of Army Staff Sharma approved a 15-day leave to spend time with his family members before leaving for Australia. In a way, Chief of Army Staff Sharma is like an Australian citizen. It seems that it was easy for Australia to advance IPS during his time.
Chief of Army Staff Sharma has also submitted a letter written by the Nepalese government to the American officers of IPS. In the letter signed by Prime Minister Deuba, Nepal has asked the United States to donate two helicopters for the Nepal Army. The Nepal Army has already corresponded on this matter. It is not yet clear whether the helicopter has donated through IPS or not. However, before this, the Indo-Pacific Command had given two PZL M-28 Sky Trucks made in Poland to the Nepalese Army in 2019.
The two Sky Trucks were brought during the visit of Randall Schriver, then US Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, to Nepal. Chief of Army Staff Sharma told the Parliament’s International Relations Committee last month that the Sky Truck was brought in under the US State Partnership Program (SPP). Analyzing all these events together, it is clear that Nepal is a member of IPS. However, officially, the government has been denying this issue.
On the other hand, Assistant Secretary Lu appeared to be a bit more aggressive about the SPP agreement. Against the Nepal government’s decision not to pass the SPP, he said, ‘Nepal’s neighbor has mismatched the issue of SPP.’ Although his finger pointed towards China, he did not mention the name of China.
Before the MCC project was passed by the parliament, Assistant Secretary Lu visited Nepal in the third week of November 2021. On February 10, he had given pressure to the top leaders to pass the MCC by telephone from the US. He gave a diplomatic warning that if the MCC is not passed by the deadline of February 28, it may affect bilateral relations. Nepal’s Parliament passed the MCC on February 27 keeping in mind Lu’s deadline. The change in Lu’s view of Nepal in the span of eight months also indicates that the issue of the assistance that the United States will receive from Nepal in this area has become clear.
Chief of Army Staff Sharma met with the Chairman of the NATO Military Committee
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Military Committee Chairman Admiral Rob Bauer participated in the Indo-Pacific Chiefs of Defense Conference held in Australia.
He met with the defense chiefs of NATO partners Australia, Japan, and Mongolia, the deputy chief of defense of the Republic of Korea, and the commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command. Bauer also had a sideline talk with Chief of Army Staff Sharma on July 27, the last day of the conference.
Bauer and Sharma discussed the effective implementation of IPS in Nepal. Chief of Army Staff Sharma said that Nepal is positive about helping America from a military point of view. Among them, the issue of military cooperation was also discussed as these kinds of conferences help to increase the spirit of military cooperation internationally.
In 1949, the United States, Canada, and other European countries established NATO to work against the then Soviet Union. Since its inception, NATO has been suppressing communists. In recent times, it seems that NATO has also begun to pay attention to the issue of finishing the Communists of Nepal. Now, Maoist Chairman Dahal is at the center of this campaign.
No need of communists
During Assistant Secretary Lu’s visit to Nepal, Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal said that it will not possible to form a socialist center for the time being. The process of building the CPN Socialist Center was started by including the Communists in the power coalition including the Maoists. At the time of Lu’s visit to Nepal, Dahal said, “Socialist center will not be formed immediately.”
It seems that not only Dahal but also Madhav Nepal, the Chairman of United Socialist Party, suddenly changed after Lu suggested to create a socialist center instead of NCP. Even within the United Socialist Party, a debate has started that communist unity is impossible by excluding the UML. Socialist’s senior leader Mukund Neupane wrote on Facebook, ‘To call communist unity apart from UML is to play a game of finishing communists in Nepal.’ In that game, Assistant Secretary Lu’s role has been taken as important. As the son of a Chinese father and an American mother, Lu’s part has led to the role of encircling China. He is the third ranking minister in the US State Department.
As America’s influence is increasing in Nepal, it seems that the influence of Europeans is also increasing recently. It is not unusual for Europeans to find their place not only in the formation of Nepal’s latest constitution but also as investors. However, the Europeans seem to be in favor of a unified UML. The news made by the British news organization BBC’s on 29 July 2022 says, “Madhav Nepal: Congress-Maoists Insult pressures him to merge with UML.” Coding Neupane’s statement, the news has said, “A coalition with the UML is the only way to advance the left wing at present. If not, the left will be the way to eliminating.”
The current unity was brought forward by the Maoists to finish the UML. This also means that if move forward together, it will be easier to bargain with the Congress in the upcoming elections. Congress is in favor of taking 100 seats in direct election giving only 65 to other parties. However, on June 28 the leader Nepal has already said that there is no alternative to the current alliance. America’s desire is also the current coalition government led by the Congress. If the Congress gets a majority in the upcoming elections, America will start to finish communists including Maoists.
It seems that Maoists will suffer the most if the Congress moves forward in American interests. Such a situation will lead the country to the instability again. Due to the alliance against UML, UML will be transformed into a very small party in the upcoming elections. In such a case, the Congress-led government will be wider to do anything. There is no situation where the Maoists and socialists can tolerate the interests of the Congress. Therefore, the only option to stop the growing American interests in Nepal is the formation of a communist front including the UML. However, in the current situation, such a front does not seem to be formed. If this front is not formed, even to China the affairs of Nepal does not look easy in the future.
In the upcoming elections, it seems that Congress will move Gagan Thapa or Arzu Deuba forward as the Prime Minister. Both trust the Americans blindly. As a result, the government formed after the election will move forward with the idea of further weakening China’s presence in Nepal. In the five years after the upcoming elections, Nepal will continue to play a central role in IPS. As a result, Nepal will once again become a battle ground for American interests against China. Now it seems to be increasing the possibility of Khampa’s return again.
