# Prem Sagar Poudel
The government is trying to reduce the influence of China which is expanding in Nepal. It is clear that even before the formation of the five-party coalition government by displacing the KP Oli’s government; the government has given more importance to the West than China. Since then, India seems to be focusing on the latter. However, India’s influence in Nepal has not returned to its old state.
In 2072 BS, India had made great efforts to stop the constitution-drafting process. India imposed blockade after its wish was not fulfilled. Due to which anti-India public opinion developed in Nepal. China seems to have made good use of that time. Due to which the public opinion towards China was increasing in Nepal.
Although the Chinese influence in Nepal increased during the Oli government, with the formation of the current coalition government, work is being done with India and the United States at the center. A recent example is the farewell of Indian Ambassador to Nepal Vinay Mohan Kwatra.
Leaders including Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, CPN (MC) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal and CPN (US) Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal were present on the occasion of the farewell of Indian Ambassador to Nepal Vinay Mohan Kwatra, who is promoted to foreign secretary. The line of leaders at the dinner held at the Indian Embassy in Lainchaur on Chaitra 29 shows how much priority Nepal has given to India is clear.
Efforts made by Nepali leaders to mend broken relations with India after 2072 BS have not been fruitful so far. One of the reasons behind this is the removal of Congress I from power. Many of today’s Nepali leaders have more ties to the Congress than to the BJP.
S. Jayashankar, who has made every effort till the last moment to stop the process of promulgating the constitution that Nepal is about to issue, is now the Foreign Minister of India. During the visit to India, Prime Minister Deuba had a discussion on deepening Nepal-India relations with him. Before holding talks with Jaishankar, Prime Minister Deuba visited the Bharatiya Janata Party’s headquarter. There, Prime Minister Deuba was welcomed by National President JP Nadda. They discussed issues of mutual interest.
Deuba is likely to be Nepal’s first prime minister to visit the party’s office during the visit to India. It is not common for the prime minister or head of government of one country to visit another country’s party’s office. In diplomatic language, this is considered an act beyond etiquette.
In Baluwatar, Prime Minister Deuba’s wife Arju Rana tied Rakshabandhan on 7 Bhadra to Bharatiya Janata Party’s foreign affairs chief Dr. Vijay Chauthaiwale. Chauthaiwale, who is on a four-day visit to Nepal, had linked the Bharatiya Janata Party with Prime Minister Deuba. Earlier, Deuba and BJP leaders did not have much contact.
Distant relations with China and close relations with the United States:
The current government is closer to the United States than India. A meeting of the ruling coalition was being held in Baluwatar to settle the issue in the local elections on 5th Baishakh. While the meeting was going on, US Ambassador Randy Berry entered in Baluwatar. After the dispute escalated in the first meeting, Ambassador Berry entered in Baluwatar while the coalition parties were sitting in the second meeting.
Coincidentally, the Nepali Congress was ready to hand over the responsibility of the Bharatpur Metropolitan city to the Maoists. Earlier, there was a big controversy within the Congress over Bharatpur. High-ranking Congress leaders had reached the level of friendly relations with the Maoists in Bharatpur.
Leaving the coalition meeting and attending a press conference on Paris Danda, Maoist Chairman Dahal said that they were looking for a metropolis. He said: “We are not just saying of Bharatpur. We agree in Biratnagar as well.” President Dahal had hinted at a press conference that the alliance could break up. However, his claim did not last even for a few hours.
After helping to pass the MCC, Ambassador Berry also has a close relationship with CPN (MC) Chairman Dahal. However, the Maoists have had American relations since 2054 BS. It is understood that some of the recent disputes over the government have been mediated by US Ambassador Berry. Berry also visited Baluwatar in the morning when Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited to Nepal. Foreign Minister Wang arrived in Kathmandu on 10th Chaitra.
During his stay in Kathmandu for three days, the government did not show much respect to Foreign Minister Wang. Foreign Minister Wang’s visit was not as important as Kwatra’s farewell party in Lainchaur. Therefore, before the visit, Nepal did not want to go ahead with the program of signing the ‘BRI Implementation Agreement’ for the construction of BRI infrastructure in Nepal proposed by China.
The government of Nepal has put the proposal on hold saying further study is needed. Prime Minister Deuba and Foreign Minister Narayan Khadka have suggested that the agreement should be clear on BRI grants and loans. The visit did not even reduce the growing distance between Nepal and China in recent times.
After Foreign Minister Wang’s visit to Nepal, the government decided to dismiss China Gejuwa Water and Power Group from Budhigandaki Hydropower Project. The decision was taken as per the proposal of the Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation on 24th Chaitra. This incident also clarifies how the Chinese project will move forward in Nepal in the coming days.
Foreign Minister Wang arrived in Nepal after Nepal signed the MCC agreement and Nepal voted against Russia in the United Nations. In the war between Russia and Ukraine, Nepal had established itself at the American pole. In addition, Nepal provided an environment for the US Embassy in Nepal to hold public programs in favor of Ukraine.
After the MCC’s approval, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Kelly Keiderling arrived in Kathmandu on 4th Baishakh. She had come to Nepal five months ago to create an environment for MCC. This is her second visit to Nepal in five months. She came to Kathmandu in the third week of November. She met with government officials and civil society representatives. At the same time, US Assistant Secretary of State Donald Lu was on a visit to Nepal. As many as 200 Tibetan refugees have been given refugee identity cards when Kelly Keiderling’s arrival in Kathmandu.
Tibet Issue:
China seems to be afraid that Nepal will also work for an independent Tibet in favor of the US. That is why China has been seeking consensus with Nepal for a long time in favor of the one-China policy. Even during Foreign Minister Wang’s recent visit, Nepali officials read easily about China’s sensitivities and said, “Our land will not be used for anti-China activities.”
Nepali leaders seem to think that China is not aware of the practical transformation of this eloquent sentence. However, China is more aware of all kinds of anti-China activities in Nepal than Nepal. China is well aware that the government is openly supporting anti-China activities from Nepali soil. Not only this, the Chinese seems to be clear about the extent to which anti-China activities in Nepal affect China. In such a situation, it cannot be said that Nepal’s commitment is different from crocodile tears.
The Tibet factor is not as it was yesterday. It is not a matter of assuming that the people of Tibet are currently opposed to China. Equally important is the extent to which they understand the Dalai Lama because of the unimaginable development that has taken place in Tibet. Therefore, the idea that the anti-China activities taking place in Nepal can cut the cold of the Himalayas and warm China seems to be going wrong. Therefore, the anti-China activities taking place on Nepali soil have not affected China much and cannot.
If the Tibet factor does not work, then there is no importance of Nepal not only for China but also for the United States. The Americans seem to be interested in the precious minerals in Nepal. China doesn’t have that either. In such a situation, the diminishing importance of Nepal cannot be considered unnatural. On the other hand, if Nepal’s parties are trying to keep China away, it does not mean that they only need Nepal.
The issue of Tibetans in Nepal or India is an internal matter of China. China is not like the past. China, a key player in today’s global economy, needs to address this issue as soon as possible. As a result, the American game in the Himalayan region will end forever. If the idea of improving the lives of Tibetan refugees in Nepal and India and preventing them from becoming American playgrounds is working, then this issue is not a big problem today. But Americans want to make it a problem.
Nepal, China and India:
The Deuba government’s first agenda was to mend broken relations with India. It seems that Deuba has made all kinds of efforts in this regard. However, Nepal has forgotten the status and role of India today. The first issue that needs to be clarified in Nepal is, ‘Where does India stay?’ At present, India’s foreign policy is not clear. Initially, India remained neutral on Ukraine. In other words, India did not side with European countries, including the United States, on Ukraine. Lately, it seems that India has started to side with the American camp again.
During the Cold War, India sided with the then Soviet Union. Due to the cooperation with the Soviet Union, various development projects in India also moved forward. After the border war of 1962, India began to see China as its worst enemy. Even today, the Indian media sees China in the same way. They have not changed their attitude towards China. India now seems to be confused about where to go.
India has recently canceled a tender for the purchase of 48 helicopters from Russia, citing the Ukraine war. On the other hand, India has increased the amount of petroleum it buys from Russia. Russia’s oil reserves had risen as countries, including the United States, refused to buy petroleum from Russia due to the Ukraine war. In March and April 2022 only, India imported 14 million barrels of crude oil from Russia.
From the above two incidents it is clear that India has not been able to leave Russia. Helicopter purchase was criticized in India. The issue of crude oil was criticized by European countries. In response, India said, “I have not taken as much oil from Russia as you can buy in one day.”
If India stays at Russia’s pole, it could be an alliance of China, India, Russia and North Korea. In that case, Nepal will still be in trouble. If India sided with the US, US interest in Nepal would diminish. India will also be at the center of the Indo-Pacific strategy. As a result, direct American pressure on Nepal seems to be reduced. The United States can also see through Indian glasses on Nepal. That is why the US can see Nepal through the eyes of India. Such is the understanding of Nepal’s political party leaders and political analysts. However, it seems that the US wants to move forward by dealing directly with Nepal and not through Indians. The US has its eye on Nepal’s uranium, lithium, copper and gold mines.
If India increases its inclination towards China and Russia, then Nepal will be at the center of Indo-Pacific strategy. With this strategy of encircling China, Nepal seems to be in double pressure. Therefore, Nepal needs to think about how to secure itself by staying close to India and China. That is why Prithvi Narayan Shah said, Nepal is a yam between two stones. Now Nepal has become a weak yam between two stones. Other analysts believe that the roadmap for this issue can be viewed in this way.
If the way of India becomes clear as soon as possible, it will be easier for Nepal to choose where to stay. When India goes to the American line, Nepal could be pressed between China and India.
Neighbors first should be the clear thought for Nepal. Seeing the US close and China and India far away can make Nepal even more lonely. China should lead economic development in this area. And, China should also move forward with Nepal and Nepalis in its faith. Otherwise, China’s security and integrity could be affected while the current situation in Nepal remains the same.
