# Prem Sagar Poudel
Many Nepalese, who have been hearing that the US Army will come to Nepal after the MCC agreement, were shocked when the picture of the US Army plane landing became public on Friday. The US Air Force call sign MC 90169 landed in Kathmandu at 9:15 am on Friday.
Army planes from one country to another land only during emergencies and visits by dignitaries. However, it is said that the US Air Force plane was carrying diplomatic supplies and embassy supplies. The cargo plane carrying 33 diplomatic parcels had 17 crew members on board.
If not consider coincident, in the morning, due to the plane landing, hot debate on social media, and in the evening, it was reported that the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) had offered to provide 650 million US dollars to Nepal. The Ministry of Finance has already sent the assistance to be given to the Council of Ministers for decision. In other words, it is clear that this news is more sponsored than regular. The news should have been made public on the day USAID proposed to the Ministry of Finance or after the decision of the Council of Ministers.
During and after the MCC Pass, American activism in Nepal seems to have increased. Americans seem to be at the forefront of raising pro-Ukraine or Tibetan New Year celebrations. The government has been ignoring to the growing American activism in Nepal. With American activism, pressure is mounting within the Congress not to bring its ally, the CPN (MC), to the polls. Even General Secretary of the Nepali Congress Gagan Thapa, who has been active in passing the MCC by staying close to the United States, has been saying that the Congress will face the election alone.
American Desire:
The United States has not yet trusted CPN (MC) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who has stood in favor of the MCC at the last hour. The only reason behind this is the dubious role he has been playing for a long time. Despite being in favor of the MCC, Chairman Dahal has said that he has requested UML Chairman KP Oli to become the Prime Minister on the condition of not passing the MCC. Dahal had made such an offer to Oli on 12 Falgun (24 February).
Oli laughed at Dahal’s proposal. However, for Dahal, this issue has become like a bone stuck in his neck. On the one hand, the pressure from the cadres on Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba has been increasing. On the other hand, he has not been able to free himself from the compulsion of bringing together the Maoists and the Unified Socialists to stay in power. Despite blocking the parliament during the MCC polls, the UML has held a press conference in favor of the MCC.
While the UML and the Congress are clearly in favor of the MCC, the Maoists seem to be in favor of the MCC to show the United States and against it to show the cadres. In other words, the United States does not want to push Dahal forward because of this dubious character of the Maoists. The Americans seem to be wary of the possibility of another controversy due to Dahal tomorrow. So they seem to be focusing on the House of Representatives without Dahal. If the Congress and the UML do not support, not only Dahal but also the CPN (MC) may not be seen in the House of Representatives.
Dahal, who is aware of American thought, said in a state-level training program of the party held in Biratnagar on March12 that foreigners wanted to bring a two-party system in Nepal. In the training, he said, “In the forthcoming federal, state or local elections, we have an ‘international reaction’ to eliminate the revolutionaries and establish a two-party system. If the ‘battle’ of the election is not won, not only our party and candidate will lose, but also the nation of Nepal. The achievement of the people’s revolution loses. Inclusive, proportional democracy loses.”
Earlier, UML general secretary Shankar Pokharel had said that a debate should be started on forming only two parties in Nepal. Inaugurating the 11th conference of the UML Dolakha-Kathmandu Liaison Forum in Kathmandu on February 26, Pokharel also instructed the party cadres to use the debate to bring the country under a two-party system as an awakening.
Dahal has not yet spoken about the “international reaction” to the idea of advancing Nepal’s politics with only the Congress and the UML as parties. Pokharel, who introduced himself as an exponent of party policy, did not elaborate further on the issue. However, Pokhrel’s wife Sujata Shakya was active in the NGO for a long time. She has good relations with the West. This is also indicated by the recent upheaval of CPN (MC) Chairman Dahal.
Power coalition or alone:
The Maoists’ biggest challenge right now is to stay in power or walk alone. After knowing that Dahal was looking for an alternative to the alliance because of the Congress, Deuba called Dahal and CPN (US) Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal to Baluwatar and urged them not to worry about electoral coordination between the ruling coalition parties. Deuba said that he would take a decision to coordinate after the campaign launched by the Nepali Congress on March 13. Though coordination was not possible everywhere at the local level, there was a discussion among the leaders about coordination from the central level to the metropolitan and sub-metropolitan areas. Leaders said that coordination should be made in other municipalities based on local needs.
Dahal, on the other hand, had said that there could be coordination with the UML if the Nepali Congress tried to oust them. “There has been no immediate discussion with the UML, but there are some extremist leaders in the Congress. We can’t say anything what will happen if the Congress tries to oust maoist because of them,” Dahal said at a state-level training program in Lumbini.”
At the Baluwatar meeting, there was a doubt among the leaders that local elections would not be held on 30th Baishakh. CPN (MC) Chairman Dahal had questioned Prime Minister Deuba if UML Chairperson KP Oli will agree to hold the state and federal elections before the local level. “We are doing preparations, there were rumors of cancelling the election outside’. The Prime Minister said that such rumors would continue till the day of polling to the queries of Prachanda.
As the topics of discussion of the three leaders became public, it is clear that the ruling coalition is close to dissolution. It seems that Prime Minister Deuba has not been able to convince Dahal and Nepal about the local elections. This highlights the recent lack of communication between Dahal, Nepal and Deuba. On the other hand, the ‘Let’s go from house to house, let’s win the Congress’ campaign run by the Nepali Congress will end only on April 13. The Election Commission has made public the nomination program on April 24.
After the end of the campaign, a meeting of the Central Committee will have to be held to decide whether to go to the polls alone or on the basis of the suggestions given by the Congress cadres. In such a situation, it takes time for the Congress to adjust not only the thinking of the cadres but also the attitude of those who want to contest the election. Due to which, there seems to be a need to coordinate at the last moment.
In such a situation, it cannot be said that the election will not be affected by the management challenges of the aspirants. Therefore, the Congress is more focused on stopping the cooperation of the Maoists with the UML than going together. The results of the campaign are equally likely to be announced after Deuba made it clear that he would trap Dahal and stop cooperating with the UML or that the UML would not go to the polls with the CPN (MC)
The illusion of Visit:
Congress afraid with the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who started visiting Nepal on March 25. Deuba has been trying to stay close to Dahal lately due to fears that Foreign Minister Yi could create a conducive environment for the UML and the Maoists. He seems to have tried to move forward by keeping close to Oli along with Dahal. Deuba has been seeking clarification on the issue of Dahal’s bargaining showing the closeness with Oli.
Deuba is not comfortable with the timing of Foreign Minister Wang’s visit. Although he did not say anything about MCC, he will try to speak clearly about BRI. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is coordinating with the Office of the President, Office of the Prime Minister and Council of Ministers, Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Commerce to discuss the issues of the visit. Chinese Ambassador Hou Yanqi has already held one-stage discussions with Foreign Minister Narayan Khadka, Speaker Agni Sapkota, CPN-MC Chairman Dahal and Home Minister Balkrishna Khand.
In 2016, Nepal signed in the BRI. After the signing, no BRI project has been taken forward. Nepal had initially said it would send 35 projects to China for BRI. These include Kathmandu-Rasuwagadhi road upgrade, Kathmandu-Rasuwagadhi railway project, Galchi-Rasuwagadhi 400 kV transmission line, Kimathanka-Hile road construction, Madan Bhandari technical school, Tamor hydropower project. Nepal has not yet informed China about the project.
Even President Bidyadevi Bhandari has expressed dissatisfaction over the non-progress of BRI project as per the agreement reached between Nepal and China. In an interview with China’s state-run media Global Times and People’s Daily on Fagun 27 (March 11), she said: “Five years after the signing of the Belt and Road Initiative Agreement, the projects under it have not achieved the expected momentum. This is a matter of concern.”
On the other hand, the issue of transit agreement with China will be discussed during Foreign Minister Wang’s visit to Nepal. A transit agreement was signed with China in 2016 in search of an alternative route to the sea after an undeclared blockade by Nepal’s southern neighbor India. The protocol was signed during President Bhandari’s visit to China in 2019. Accordingly, Nepal has access to four Chinese seaports and three dry ports.
Foreign Minister Wang’s visit is expected to lead to a long-term diplomatic solution to the border issue between the two countries. During a telephone conversation between Foreign Minister Khadka and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang on October 6 (Kartik 2), it was stated that an agreement had been reached to resolve the border issue through diplomatic channels. Leaders of the ruling Congress are claiming that China has encroached on Nepalese land in Namkha of Humla.
After the formation of the Deuba-led government, a committee was formed on Bhadra 16 to study the border from Limi Lapcha to Hilsa in Humla. The committee had submitted its report to Home Minister Bal Krishna Khand in the second week of Asoj. Based on the same report, a letter was also sent to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs on 18 Asoj.
However, the first task of Foreign Minister Wang’s visit is to restore the confidence that Nepal has lost in the eyes of China in recent times. Along with the growing American activity in Nepal, the movement of independent Tibetans is also increasing. Due to which, Nepal has to convince China that it is in favor of one-China policy. On the other hand, Nepal’s decision to side with Ukraine seems to have hurt its neighbors somewhere.
Therefore, if Prime Minister Deuba can win the trust of China, Foreign Minister Wang’s visit will be successful. In the absence of Deuba’s confidence, it cannot be said that China will not focus on creating an alternative situation. That means moving the UML and the Maoists forward in cooperation again. If Oli and Dahal can work together before the next election, there is a good chance that a new government will be formed under Oli’s leadership. Due to Deuba, there is no alternative to Oli to balance the growing American influence in Nepal.
