# Prem Sagar Poudel
The discussions on Friday and Saturday, February 25 and 26, have raised the possibility of the MCC being passed by the parliament. This possibility has increased after the Maoists and the Unified Socialists agreed to vote for the MCC. However, a clear outline of this will be clear only after the meeting of the ruling coalition on Sunday morning.
At a meeting of the ruling coalition held in Baluwatar on Saturday evening, CPN (MC) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Unified Socialist Chairman Madhav Nepal agreed to vote in favor of the MCC with Explanatory announcement. The basis for the agreement was laid by a meeting of the second tier leaders of the ruling coalition on Saturday evening.
How it became possible:
On Friday afternoon, the CPN (MC) chairperson had reached Baluwatar with Finance Minister Jarnadan Sharma, who was ‘absent in Parliament’. Finance Minister Sharma, who was staying at the minister’s residence on the pretext of being ill while presenting the MCC to the parliament, was seen in the Parbat on Thursday. He arrived in Kathmandu by air from Pokhara only on Friday afternoon. Sharma, who could not even show his face in front of Prime Minister Deuba, was taken to Baluwatar by Chairman Dahal.
Prime Minister Deuba was angry not only with Chairman Dahal but also with Minister Sharma. He did not even ask Dahal to sit. Dahal told Deuba that he is in favor of MCC. Deuba, on the other hand, was in constant touch with UML Chairman Oli. Deuba, who was thinking of getting Oli’s help, scolded Dahal and said, “I don’t trust you.” If you want to help, write it on the party’s letter pad and bring it. If you bring it within two o’clock tomorrow, I will think.’
After leaving Baluwatar, Chairman Dahal called Nepal. He urged Nepal to discuss the basis for passing MCC. Dahal and Nepal had already agreed to block the UML from entering in the government anyway. They also agreed to speak against the UML and create a conducive environment for them.
On the advice of the two leaders, Dahal on Saturday said that the risk of regression was high again. Nepal said that if Oli comes to the government again, he will dismiss the country. In other words, there is no alternative to passing the MCC to prevent ‘regression’ from coming to power and to save the country. This is exactly the message that the two leaders sought to convey on Saturday. Their announcement could have led to speculation that a consensus was being reached in favor of the MCC. Prime Minister Deuba was also aware of this.
After a discussion among the Nepali Congress leaders who had gathered in Baluwatar on Saturday afternoon, they headed towards Balkot. Leaders including Prime Minister Deuba were scheduled to visit Balkot. But, Chairman Oli made it clear to the 22 smaller opposition parties who reached Balkot on Saturday morning that he is not in favor of the MCC.
After Deuba remained busy on that time on Saturday, other Congress leaders were sent to Balkot for discussions. Oli did not sit in the discussion as Deuba did not come. Oli urged other leaders who had come to Balkot for discussions. They said the same thing to the Congress leaders, “Create an environment for our participation in Parliament.” Only then we will move forward by consulting on the MCC.’ The UML had been repeating the same stance during the talks with the Nepali Congress on the MCC. On the other hand, the Congress leaders returned to Baluwatar after formal talks after knowing the conspiracy and confirmed that they did not help anyway.
Deuba had left Baluwatar to go to Balkot after the Congress leaders reported that there would be no talks with Oli if he did not come. But, on the way, he came to know about Oli’s dialogue with 22 parties. When he found out about the conversation, he returned. Deuba called Information and Communication Minister Gyanendra Bahadur Karki, who was in talks with UML leaders. He instructed to return to Baluwatar after concluding the talks.
Due to his close ties with President Bidya Devi Bhandari, Karki has been holding close talks with Oli recently on issues ranging from MCC to government partnerships. While leaving Balkot, Minister Karki said, “We proposed them to run parliament smoothly, and send a message that the country stands united on important issues only if the MCC moves in the direction of ratification with national consensus.” They are repeating the same thing. “The door of the House of Representatives is not open for us. You have to work to open it.” They said that it is our responsibility. We also have said that it is their responsibility to make Parliament alive. We have asked them that let’s move forward by evaluating the situation which is our responsibility. And even today the discussion remained focused on that. I wanted to tell you new news, but I can’t tell you anything now.
Even when Minister Karki was leaving Balkot, he did not know about another strategy made by Deuba. So he was much disappointed. He spoke to reporters in frustration. But, with the arrival in Baluwatar, they got to know the new news. The meeting of Deuba, Dahal and Nepal, which will be held at 7 pm on Saturday, will reach some decision. This decision will open the door to pass the MCC.
Unexpected Happening:
On Friday, while returning from the Prime Minister’s Office, Finance Minister Sharma called Home Minister Balkrishna Khand. Analysing at Deuba’s approach, it did not take long for Sharma to realize that the alliance was almost over. Sharma was aware that breaking the alliance would affect the upcoming elections as well. Earlier, plans were afoot to oust Speaker Agni Prasad Sapkota. Not only that, the UML had also started claiming the state chiefs of Bagmati and Lumbini provinces. On the whole, an agreement was being reached with the UML’s in package.
This agreement would have affected Dahal and Nepal in the upcoming elections as well. If the UML and the Nepali Congress coordinated in the place where the Maoists and the Socialists won, there was a possibility that not a single seat would be won in direct election. In the midst of all these possibilities, Dahal was slowly being soft. Sharma had come to Kathmandu from the Parbat to help him. Sharma, who left Kathmandu on a district visit with the intention of not participating in any decision of the MCC, had said in Baglung on Thursday that the MCC would not be passed. In Parbat, he tried to forget the MCC scandal by enjoying the zip line.
Sharma entered Kathmandu after Dahal said that the situation was getting out of control. After Deuba did not show much interest, he told Minister Khand that they were positive about the MCC. Minister Khand immediately told this to Prime Minister Deuba. Deuba did not want to hear that, because he is tired with their drama. Instead, he reached Balkot and tried to reach an agreement with Oli.
After Deuba was not interested in his statement, Minister Khand called party general secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa. Thapa had earlier put forward the option of a commitment proposal to persuade the Maoists and socialists. At a meeting of the top leaders of the ruling coalition on February 17, Thapa had proposed that the resolution proposal could be passed accompanying with the approval of the MCC.
“Let’s clarify all the questions that have been raised. If any action is taken against the interest of Nepal in the future, let’s pass a resolution proposal saying that we are ready to cancel the agreement. Doing so addresses everyone’s concerns’, was Thapa’s proposal. CPN (MC) Chairman Dahal disagreed with Thapa’s proposal. He said, ‘Gagan sir thing has gone much further than that. We can’t vote the MCC in the Parliament.’ After Dahal’s reply, Deuba stepped up the dialogue with UML.
On Friday, Dahal came to Gagan Thapa’s proposal, carrying the word “explanatory declaration” instead of Thapa’s resolution. On Saturday, Congress General Secretary Thapa and Home Minister Khand, Maoist leader and Finance Minister Sharma and leader Shakti Basnet, CPN (Unified Socialist) leaders Virodh Khatiwada and Ram Kumari Jhakri, advocate Govinda Bandi, who is well aware in international law, did additional homework.
They have drafted what will be included in the explanatory declaration. In which, while doing the agreement in MCC, Nepal will not be a part of any military alliance, the audit will be done by the Auditor General of Nepal. An explanatory declaration prepared in accordance with the ‘Vienna Convention’ as well as the Treaty of Nepal will be presented at the meeting of the Coalition on Sunday morning.
If an agreement is reached in the coalition meeting, the proposal will be passed by the cabinet meeting. It will then be registered in Parliament. By approving the MCC agreement, the government will inform the MCC about it. The second tier leaders had a discussion with the top leaders on Saturday evening about the draft of the explanatory declaration. During the discussion held at the residence of CPN (MC) Chairman Dahal in Khumaltar, the leaders seemed positive to approve the MCC along with the explanatory declaration. CPN-US leader Jhala Nath Khanal and CPN-US leader Narayan Kaji Shrestha had raised questions about the proposal. Both leaders said time was needed to understand the explanatory declaration.
Prime Minister Deuba, who is also the Nepali Congress president, also held discussions with party leaders in Baluwatar in the evening. After all these discussions, the meeting of Deuba, Dahal and Nepal has agreed on this issue. Leaving the meeting, Maoist Chairman Dahal said, “We will reach a decision tomorrow. The alliance will not break.” However, Prime Minister Deuba is still unable to trust CPN (MC) Chairman Dahal. Dahal had also asked for time till Sunday morning on Saturday. Therefore, the meeting of the coalition to be held on Sunday at 9 o’clock will make the final decision on this issue.
UML in Target:
CPN (MC) Chairman Dahal and Socialist Chairman Nepal have concluded that UML is run by China. They were of the view that the UML would easily come to the support of the MCC. Earlier, speaking in the House of Representatives on the government’s joint program, UML Chairman Oli had said, “Where is the MCC in your policy and program?” You haven’t said anything what you will do on MCC.’
CPN (MC) Chairman Dahal had met UML leader Oli on 24 February. During the meeting, Dahal had proposed to Oli to forget the past and work together. Oli, on the other hand, gave a straightforward answer that he could think about it only if his demands were met. Dahal had gone to meet Oli with the intention of joining hands with the UML in case the alliance with the Nepali Congress was broken. The issue could not be taken up as Oli was not interested.
On the other hand, socialist leader Nepal is not satisfied with his own role due to weaker party formation than expected. As the cadres started returning to the UML one after another, the concern to save the party has also increased for Nepal. In such a situation, Nepal has reached the point of thinking about being reunited with UML from somewhere. However, Nepal has come to the conclusion that it will be easier to improve relations with Oli by Dahal than Nepal himself. On the other hand, the discussion on the issue of reconciliation could not move forward as Dahal was not even treated like a leader by Oli.
Dahal and Nepal’s desire seems to be to win the support of the young people who are against the MCC by pushing the UML to the MCC. Even their thinking has not been able to transform into action because of Oli. Leaving the government in such a situation seems to have added more concern to both Dahal and Nepal. Even the Maoist and socialist leaders participating in the government do not want to leave the government as much as possible. Those who became ministers on behalf of the Socialists are in favor of the MCC.
Even if the alliance moves forward or breaks up after passing the MCC, the UML will be the target of the CPN (MC) and the Socialists. Dahal and Nepal’s separate speeches on Saturday also indicated this. So far, Prime Minister Deuba has not believed in Dahal and Nepal. Therefore, today, Sunday morning, both the parties will participate in the meeting of the alliance only after the decision of the party. The Maoist centre has called a meeting of the former standing committee members on Sunday. The meeting will be held at the residence of Chairman Dahal in Khumaltar on MCC. CPN (US) has called a secretariat meeting at 11 am on Sunday.
There was no discussion about MCC in the executive meeting of People’s Socialist Party held on Saturday. The meeting has given the responsibility to the three leaders to prepare a consensus proposal on how to resolve the disputes within the party. The Party Chairman, Upendra Yadav, federal council president Baburam Bhattarai and senior leader Ashok Rai are holding discussions on Sunday morning. The same discussion will set the date of the executive meeting and decide on the MCC, said JSP. JSP leader Bhattarai is in favor of MCC while Yadav is against.
In the absence of CPN (MC) and Socialists in favor of MCC, Prime Minister Deuba is not in the mood to convince UML either. Prime Minister Deuba can move forward by announcing the federal parliamentary elections in May as wished by Oli. In that case, Deuba and Oli could work together to persuade the United States to pass the MCC after the election. Since the Congress and the UML will be closely competing in the election, the public opinion that will come after the election can be assessed. If such a situation arises, MCC will hold up to next Ashadh to pass it. If the UML does not agree in the MCC, it will not be easy for the Maoists and the Socialists to decide in favor of the MCC from the party meeting.
Final preparations to pass MCC:
One communist Leader said: “As per the agreement reached yesterday, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba did not go to meet former Prime Minister Oli and will not go.” Also, there is no consensus between the UML and the Nepali Congress. We have already adjusted the western setting within the Nepali Congress. Advocate Gavinda Bandi has been mobilized on behalf of the United States to control former Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal. Former Prime Minister Madhav Kumar has agreed to pass the MCC, showing fear that Nepal’s politics will end if there is an agreement between the UML and the Nepali Congress. Even if the CPN (Maoist Centre) decides to vote in favor now, it will boycott or vote in favor of the MCC for passing anyway.
Similarly, during the talks, Leader Gurung said: Chairman Prachanda has called a meeting at his residence at 7.30 am tomorrow to discuss MCC. Final preparations are being made to pass MCC with amendments. According to Prachanda’s plan, he is preparing to pass the MCC and 11-point amendment related to it together. By doing so, it will save in the eyes of the people and MCC will also pass easily. In this situation we should stop them. Otherwise, the MCC will be passed in a guerrilla style.
