Former US vice president Mike Pence on Saturday dropped out of the race for president after struggling to raise money and gain traction in the polls, becoming the first big-name candidate to leave the race.
But Chinese analysts believe his decision will not affect the election situation or his former boss-turned-rival Donald Trump, who is the runaway frontrunner in the race for the Republican nomination.
Major Western media outlets including Reuters and The New York Times called Pence’s announcement “surprising,” but some Chinese analysts reached by the Global Times on Sunday said his decision was “not surprising” as it would be pointless for the former vice president – who spent four years dutifully serving Trump but refused to carry out Trump’s demand that he block the 2020 election results – to continue to struggle in the race after failing to attract enough primary voters and donors to sustain a candidacy that has languished in the low single digits in polls.
“It’s become clear to me: This is not my time,” Pence said at the Republican Jewish Coalition’s annual gathering in Las Vegas. “So after much prayer and deliberation, I have decided to suspend my campaign for president effective today,” Pence continued, according to the AP on Sunday.
The New York Times also pointed out that “Pence’s decision to end his run underscores how tricky the path is to topple Trump – who has been indicted four times, including twice for efforts to stay in power – in a multicandidate field.”
Lü Xiang, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, noted that Pence’s withdrawal from the race will have little impact on Trump’s support among Republican voters as he is not in contention at all.
At the time he decided to suspend his campaign, Pence was polling nationally at 3.5 percent, even behind Vivek Ramaswamy who has never held any political office, according to The New York Times report.
The latest poll for the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination shows that Trump is well ahead at 56.9 percent, following by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former US ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and Ramaswamy.
As long as Trump is not imprisoned before next year’s election, no one in the Republican Party can challenge him, Lü believed.
Trump is the first current or former president in US history to face criminal charges despite his third bid for the presidency underway. He faces four indictments, including key evidence, charges and what’s next in the legal process, according to CNN.
The indictments themselves have little negative impact on Trump’s approval ratings, Lü said. But if he is convicted, it would pose a significant obstacle to his candidacy.
The biggest risk in 2024 is the democracy of the US, specifically during the US presidential election, said Zheng Yongnian, Professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen and President of the Institute for International Affairs, Qianhai, in a session of the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum on Sunday morning.
Within the Trump-era Republican Party, the majority of party members believe that without Trump, they would lose their competitiveness for the race; a similar situation can be observed in the Democratic Party, where previously there may have been some Democrats who hold unfavorable views toward US President Joe Biden, but now they almost fully support him, according to analysts.
Both parties now have a sense of crisis, even if Trump or Biden may not be their best choice, they have no better alternatives, Lü said. “This is ironic and unprecedented in history.”
(Global Times)
