The left parties appear to have a bigger chance of reaching a consensus than the right, and observers believe that no matter which side assumes power, China-Spain relations can develop on a stable and healthy path, which is in the interests of both countries.
The center-right Popular Party won 136 seats, the largest number, but not enough to meet the 176 threshold to form a government. Far-right Vox, a possible coalition partner, won 33.
Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s ruling center-left Socialist party got 122 seats, and the left-wing Sumar 31.
Under the current situation, a left-wing coalition is more likely than a right-wing one, Cui Hongjian, director of the Department of European Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, told the Global Times on Monday.
As Popular Party and Vox combined failed to reach 176 seats, the winning minority has to invite other parties to join.
Since Spain has no tradition of a joint government between the left and right, and both sides are going further to their respective political wings, a coalition between Socialists and Popular Party is unlikely, Cui said.
Popular Party has to unite with Vox, but the latter is quite controversial in Spain, making other parties reluctant to join a coalition with it. The Socialists meanwhile have more room to negotiate with other center and left parties, Cui elaborated.
Dong Yifan, a research fellow with the Institute of European Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, told the Global Times Monday that it cannot be ruled out that the Socialists will fail to form a left coalition, leading to the dissolution of parliament and a re-election.
Before the election, it had been predicted that Vox will be the game changer and Spain will welcome a right-wing government. Though the results turned out to be different, the surge of the right is apparent – Far-right parties are either in government or supporting the government from within parliament in Italy, Poland, Finland and Sweden.
Dong interpreted the trend not as a “success of the right” but “failure of the left,” and that when left-wing governments cannot address imminent problems including price crisis, labor and immigrant issues, voters go to the other side.
Cui also pointed out the reality that the shrinking of traditional major parties in Europe has given small parties bigger room to develop and more important roles in the political arena, such as Vox in the form of a coalition government.
The EU is also concerned about Spain’s political stability and consistency. Vox is against the EU and much of its agenda such as immigration and gender equality. “If it enters Spanish government, conflict between Spain and the EU could rise,” Cui said.
Both Cui and Dong believe domestic politics will not have a major impact on Spain’s relationship with China.
Bilateral relations developed smoothly when the country was ruled by the People’s Party and Vox’s stance will not have much of an impact, analysts said, noting that development of bilateral ties is in the interests of both countries.
