Wagner rebellion ‘a big challenge’ for Moscow amid war stalemate
Although Putin did not mention the owner of the private military company by name in the speech, some experts said that the Russian leader has defined Prigozhin’s actions as treason, which will bring a series of consequences. Whether the conflict can subside is a test of Putin’s political wisdom, including his ability to control the domestic situation when both the Russian military and government face unprecedented internal and external pressure, experts noted.
Also, if the Wagner group, which has played a crucial role in Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, becomes mired in internal strife and cannot take part in the military operation, it will heavily affect Russia’s ability to launch an offensive, some experts said. But it would not have much impact on the current situation of the Russia-Ukraine war given that the two sides have been stuck in a military stalemate, they noted.
Security pressure
Putin said in his televised speech on Saturday that “we will defend both our people and our statehood from any threats, including internal treachery,” TASS reported. He noted that “what we have been confronted with can be precisely called treachery, and unbounded ambitions and personal interests have led to a treason and a betrayal of the country and its people,” according to the Russia media report.
Against this backdrop, Russia’s Armed Forces and other government agencies have received the necessary orders, Putin said, also pointing out that antiterrorist measures have been introduced in Moscow, the Moscow Region, and a number of other areas, RT reported.
Putin also noted that “decisive actions will be taken to stabilize the situation in Rostov-on-Don” in southern Russia, RT said.
Putin had also held phone talks with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, informing them about the situation, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Saturday, TASS reported.
Media reported that Russia has opened a criminal case against the head of the Wagner mercenary group for alleged armed mutiny, with security tightened in the capital. Earlier, Prigozhin claimed in a video post that the Russian military had attacked a base of Wagner fighters. The Russian defense ministry has denied the attack – describing the allegations as “untrue and an informational provocation.”
“There have been longstanding rifts between Wagner and the Russian military caused by various reasons. For example, Prigozhin had complained about the lack of sufficient ammunition and also that his fighters have not received promised medals after spearheading the assault in the Bakhmut battle,” Song Zhongping, a Chinese military expert and TV commentator, told the Global Times on Saturday.
But the immediate trigger was a recent order by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu for all “volunteer detachments” at the front in the Ukraine war to sign contracts with the Defense Ministry, which Prigozhin rejected, Song said. “If Wagner ignites a civil war in Russia through its appeal and influence, it will cause significant damage to the country’s military capability, combat effectiveness and military morale. So it’s an urgent task for Putin to quell the situation so that they won’t be exploited by external forces,” he said.
Putin’s speech already characterized Prigozhin’s act as ” treachery,” and obviously, if Prigozhin and his staff members do not take a step back or surrender, Russia will fall into a short period of chaos, Zhang Hong, an associate research fellow at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Saturday.
“Wagner claimed that it has taken control of some areas, which will certainly put Russia under internal security pressure,” he said.
Tense situation
Some Western countries including the US and the UK have been closely following the long-running feud between Wagner mercenaries and the regular army, which has now broken into open confrontation. American officials determined as early as January there was an internal power struggle underway between Wagner and the Russian government, and have been gathering and closely monitoring intelligence on the volatile dynamic ever since, CNN reported on Friday, citing officials.
As of Friday evening, US President Joe Biden had been briefed on the developing situation in Russia, according to the media report.
Britain’s defense ministry also said on Saturday that the Russian state was facing “its greatest security challenge of recent times” and the loyalty of Russia’s security forces, and especially the Russian National Guard, will be key to how this crisis plays out, according to Reuters.
The EU is closely monitoring the situation in Russia amid a rebellion by the Wagner mercenary group, EU chief Charles Michel said on Saturday.
“Closely monitoring the situation in Russia as it unfolds. In touch with European leaders and G7 partners,” he wrote in a tweet.
The Chinese Embassy in Russia told Chinese media outlet Southern Metropolis Daily on Saturday that the Russian capital region is calm and the embassy will continue to follow the local situation in Rostov after the Wagner chief claimed to have seized military sites there.
In his speech on Saturday, Putin also noted that Moscow is engaged in a historic struggle to safeguard its future while “repelling aggression from neo-Nazis and their masters” in the West.
While Chinese experts did not see any evidence to connect the open confrontation between Wagner and the Russian military with interference from Western forces, they warned that Western media may take advantage of domestic conflict in Russia.
“The Western media can hardly describe the Ukrainian army’s counterattack and slow progress as ‘victory,’ but they will not miss any opportunity to exaggerate the internal contradictions of Russia and hint that ‘Russia is over’,” Ming Jinwei, a former journalist and blogger, wrote in an article published on Saturday.
Hyping up the “mutiny” of Prigozhin and creating an illusion that Russia has many internal contradictions and that “the building is collapsing” is the latest approach of the Western media to berate Russia and try to undermine Russian social unity, Ming said.
