The China Meteorological Administration announced on Tuesday that El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon, has arrived and is expected to bring more extreme weather to China.
According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño is likely to continue into the winter, with a 56 percent chance of becoming a strong event at its peak and an 84 percent chance of at least a moderate event.
Zhou Bing, chief expert of the administration’s meteorological service department, stated at a media event on Tuesday that there are suggestions that the return of El Niño could lead to record high temperatures in 2023 or 2024, dating back to 1850.
The impact of El Niño on future weather and climate patterns remains uncertain. If it becomes a strong event at its peak, there is a high possibility of breaking temperature records. Even as a moderate event, it could surpass the record for the warmest global weather in 2016, Zhou explained.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by warming ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts for nine to 12 months, as per the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The development of El Niño is expected to contribute to global warming and increase the likelihood of temperature records being broken, as stated by the WMO in May.
The meteorologist said China will closely follow development of El Niño and how its intensity will change.
China, being the upper reaches of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, will share some of global climate pattern as El Niño develops such as more rainfall in Southern part of China and a warmer winter, Zhou noted.
Previous data from the National Climate Center revealed that during El Niño years, there is typically higher temperature in southern North China, northern Central China, central East China, and eastern Northwest China. Some regions, including southwest China, the central regions south of the Yangtze River, northeast South China, and northern Xinjiang, have experienced over 30 days of high temperature during El Niño summers.
El Niño can also lead to extreme drought in certain regions of China. In the period from late June to July 2009, 17 provinces in China suffered from severe drought due to a moderate El Niño event that lasted from June 2009 to April 2010. Eastern Inner Mongolia, western Jilin Province, and western Liaoning Province also experienced extreme drought.
Zhou cautioned that meteorologists are closely monitoring whether this year’s El Niño will have a similar impact to the one observed from June 2009 to April 2010.
In recent days, the northern part of China has been experiencing intense heat, while the southern part has been plagued by floods and heavy rainfall.
The latest data from meteorological stations indicates that Beijing will reach a peak heat with temperatures in some regions reaching 39°C. Additionally, from June 13 to June 14, regions including southern Shaanxi, western Henan, western and eastern Hubei can expect strong thunderstorm winds or hail. Parts of Guangxi, Guangdong, and Hainan will experience short periods of rainfall with maximum precipitation exceeding 60 millimeters.
