China set to fire up growth engine, remain as global stabilizer: analysts
A meeting attended by China’s top leaders on Tuesday called for lifting market confidence, strengthening policy coordination and optimizing coronavirus prevention and control measures, as part of the economic assessment and policymaking for 2023.
The key gathering, presumably ahead of the annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), crystallized a focus on revitalizing the economy, economists said. They expect the country to continue its role as a global stabilizer despite estimations of a challenging 2023 for the world economy.
The Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee convened a meeting on Tuesday to analyze and study economic work in 2023, make arrangements for improving Party conduct and moral integrity and combating corruption, the Xinhua News Agency reported on Wednesday.
Regarding the economic work for the year ahead, the meeting stressed the need to fully implement the guidelines of the 20th CPC National Congress and make solid progress in advancing Chinese modernization.
It was stressed at the meeting that the country will pay special attention to ensuring steady growth, employment and prices, forestall and defuse major risks effectively, and strive to achieve an overall improvement in the economic performance characterized by higher quality and reasonable growth.
A compilation of key takeaways from recent top level meetings, including the Tuesday one, showed that the December meeting projected an air of pro-stabilization, with more frequent mentions of steadiness and stabilization in the meeting readout, according to the research institute of Changjiang Securities.
Proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy will be continuously rolled out to pursue steady economic progress, the Tuesday meeting noted. It added that policies in various spheres will be better coordinated while epidemic responses will be optimized to form synergy for high-quality development.
Also on Wednesday, Xinhua revealed that the CPC Central Committee held a symposium on Friday with non-CPC personages to solicit opinions and suggestions on this year’s economic situation and economic work for the next year.
Different from previous meetings, the Tuesday meeting pointed to an overall rebound of macro-economic operations in 2023, attaining effective improvement in quality and a reasonable GDP growth rate, which indicates that one of the most important tasks next year is to fire up the economic engine under the new development pattern, Cao Heping, an economist at Peking University, told the Global Times on Wednesday.
He anticipates that the digital economy, emerging industries as well as green and low-carbon development will empower economic and social development in the post-COVID-19 era, and serve as solid foundation for building a modern socialist China.
According to the Tuesday meeting readout, industrial policies need to boost both development and security, while policies in the field of science and technology should focus on self-reliance and self-improvement, and social policies need to ensure people’s livelihood.
Efforts will also be made to further expand domestic demand and to give full play to the fundamental role of consumption and the key role of investment.
The meeting also emphasized the need to strengthen the resilience of industrial chains and supply chains, boost opening-up at a high level and make greater efforts to attract and utilize foreign investment.
Cao said that China’s economy will fall within a reasonable range next year.
In a fresh effort, the country announced 10 optimized measures on Wednesday aimed at containing the COVID-19 epidemic in a more science-based and targeted fashion.
In so doing, “China will continue to serve as a stabilizer and ballast stone for the global economy amid a turbulent period, and the country’s contribution for global economic growth may remain around one-third,” Cao said.
A base case for global growth will likely come in at a meager 2.4 percent, down from 3.2 percent this year, according to the latest estimates by Bloomberg Economics.
The December Political Bureau meeting that was held routinely a few days earlier than the annual tone-setting CEWC is seen as a prelude to the keenly watched gathering which provides clearer clues to where the Chinese economy is heading.
In a research note sent to the Global Times, UBS economists led by Wang Tao wrote that the upcoming CEWC in December may “emphasize more support for growth… reiterate ‘scientific and precise’ Covid controls with more easing, further support the property sector, underpin employment and consumption, and enhance macro policy support.”
(Global Times)
