# Prem Sagar Poudel
India is trying to restore its declining influence in Nepal, while America is expanding its influence. Indian Army Chief General Manoj Pande has recently returned to India after visiting Nepal. General Pande, who came to Kathmandu on September 04, spent five days in Nepal.
This is Pande’s first visit to Nepal after being appointed as the Army Chief. According to neighbors, Pande had visited Bhutan before. There seem to be two reasons behind coming to Nepal after visiting Bhutan. First, the borders of both Nepal and Bhutan are connected with China. Of course, the visit to Nepal and Bhutan, which are linked to Chinese security concerns, is not just a coincidence for General Pande.
Pande came to Nepal as a special guest of Chief of Nepalese Army Prabhu Ram Sharma. Therefore, even the schedule of General Pande’s visit was prepared in haste. Therefore, the topic of visiting Muktinath was not included in the schedule. However, General Pande also visited Muktinath. Pande returned to India with a view of China beyond the northern border of Nepal, which cannot be seen from Pokhara.
While in Nepal, Pande demonstrated a very quiet military diplomacy. Spoke weighing every words whether it would come into dispute. He met Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba only after President Bidya Bhandari honored him with the rank of Honorary Commander-in-Chief of the Nepalese Army. In the meeting, he praised the contribution of Nepali Gurkha soldiers in the Indian Army. He thanked the Nepali citizens for their contribution to the Indian Army and said that their contribution is something to be proud of. No frills were seen during Pande’s visit to Nepal. While going to Pokhara from Kathmandu, he used an army helicopter.
India’s interest
Regarding the issue of the Constitution of Nepal issued in 2072 BS, India unilaterally imposed a blockade on Nepal. Along with this blockade, the influence of expansion after the political change of 2046 BS in Nepal became weak. In recent years, Indians have started using all kinds of strategies to increase the declining Indian influence in Nepal. General Pande’s visit can be considered as the latest series of this. This series does not stop here. Now the number of Indian officials coming to Nepal seems to increase.
The next day General Pande returned to India from Kathmandu, former Indian Foreign Secretary and former National Security Council Advisor Professor Shivshankar Menon came to Kathmandu. Menon, who came to participate in the inaugural session of the Kantipur Conclave, said, ‘Nepal has to become a part of the BRI and the free and open Indo-Pacific strategy at the same time.’ Menon’s public statement regarding the open Indo-Pacific strategy, which Nepalese authorities have been hiding for a long time, has not yet been refuted by any of the Nepalese authorities.
However, the message that Nepal has become an open Indo-Pacific strategic partner seems to have been sent to the Indians as well. Because of this, Menon’s expression makes it clear that India is thinking of increasing its presence in Nepal. Recently, India has been in the process of improving the deteriorating relations with Nepal. Indo-Pacific strategic pressure seems to be working behind this process. Of course, India wants to return to its old role in Nepal. India seems to be thinking of fulfilling this desire as soon as possible. India has tried to make it more clear what it wants from Nepal by remaining silent on the citizenship bill that the government has recently introduced.
The bill, which is currently under consideration in the President’s office, provides that sons-in-law will also get Nepalese citizenship. Behind this arrangement, the interests of India and the interests of the West, including America, are intertwined. There is no point in talking about from India when the Americans bring this bill anyway. So Indians are silent on this matter. In some cases, they have not even hesitated to express that this bill is not right. However, the Indians know that the benefit of this bill was in their favor. They are thought that if it is beneficial to remain silent, why should they speak.
India now does not want to dispute with Nepal on any issue and will not do so. It seems that they have come to the idea of moving forward by leaving the issues that have been in dispute with Nepal for a long time as they are. They are trying to prevent the issue of controversy from becoming a political issue. The reason behind this is America more than China. They seem to have come to the idea that India’s influence will end forever as the American influence increases in Nepal. On the other hand, the latest concern of Indians is about the possibility that America will influence India in its favor from Nepali territory. However, it seems that they are thinking of remain silent on this matter as much as possible.
As soon as they speak, they will get into controversy from somewhere, so India has come to the idea of silently advancing the issue of Nepal. That is why the Indian officials who have come to Nepal recently return from Nepal with less talk. At present, the interest of Indians seems to be more focused on the impact of the growing American influence in Nepal. Even though they are in India, they seem to be watching this issue very carefully.
Why did Naveen speak?
Now there is a controversy about Agnipath in India. Recruitment to the Indian Army was stopped for a long time. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the Agnipath Scheme at a time when the pressure to open army recruitment was increasing. Under this scheme, the service period of the army was reduced to four years. This plan has been introduced so that 25 percent will go to the army after four years and the rest will be on retirement.
For a long time, Nepalese youths have also been joining the Indian Army under the name of Gurkha recruitment. Along with the announcement of Agnipath, the issue of Nepali youth joining the Indian Army was also in confusion. However, the spokesperson of the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, Aridam Bagchi, said that the recruitment of Gurkhas will be done in the same way as the Agnipath scheme. When asked about the recruitment of Gurkhas after the Agnipath scheme, Bagchi said, “We have been recruiting Gurkhas in the Indian Army for a long time. Under the Agnipath scheme, we will continue the process of recruiting the Gurkha army into the Indian Army.
The government has requested not to continue the recruitment process in Nepal under the Agnipath scheme, which the Indian government is trying to advance. Although the government will have a clear opinion on the recruitment of Agnipath after the agreement with the parties, even after two weeks, there has been no discussion on this issue among the officials of Nepal. Currently, 50,000 Gurkhas are serving in the Indian Army. 40 percent of them are Nepali speakers in India and 60 percent are Nepali.
Agnipath was also expected to be a topic of discussion during General Pande’s visit to Nepal. However, Pande did not speak a word to anyone on this matter. In the meeting with the Prime Minister, Indian Ambassador Naveen Srivastava said that they respect the decision taken by the Nepalese government regarding Agnipath and request him not to make it a political issue. General Pande read the Prime Minister Deuba’s response by asking Ambassador Srivastava to speak on the topic that he could speak on his own. General Pande has already understood the silent message of what Nepal wants in the Agnipath scheme. However, Indians seem to be aware of how to raise this issue above the political circle. It seems that General Pande thinks that if this issue is politicized in Nepal, it will affect the Indian Army as well.
Project Gift
Australian company Snowy Mountain Corporation SMEC has ‘held’ the construction permit for 16 years. The project was then given to the Chinese company Three Gorges International Corporation. The government has taken away the project from Three Gorges and has entrusted the project to the Indian government company National Hydropower Corporation. On August 18, an agreement was reached between the Board of Investment and the Corporation to advance the West Seti Hydro-power Project.
Prime Minister Deuba proposed to Indian Prime Minister Modi, who came to visit Lumbini on the day of Buddha Jayanti, to forward the project. Earlier, SMEC had also planned to give 10 percent electricity to Nepal for free and sell other electricity to India. However, the plan could not go ahead as India did not show interest in buying electricity. It seems that India has been eyeing the 750-megawatt project for a long time. Now, the project has been easily gone to them according to their thinking.
India does not want to dispute the issues of Nepal because of the project which was given as a gift without speaking. India is also eyeing other projects like West Seti. India has also been showing interest in Budhgandaki. However, recently the government has set up a Nepali company for the construction of the project. The Nepalese government has already paid the compensation for the affected areas of the project, which was carried out by a Nepali company. So that Budhigandaki can move forward more easily than West Seti. So far, not much work has been done in West Seti.
