# Prem Sagar Poudel
In the last few years, the West, who has been weak in Nepal’s internal politics, has become active again. They have again started developing the party as their sphere of influence. For this, it seems that they have started using the party’s general convention in the first phase.
At the recent 10th general convention of the CPN (UML) held in Chitwan, Chairman KP Oli was not allowed to be unopposed. Knowing that he would lose, Dr. Bhim Rawal insisted on contesting the election till the last moment. Due to which the election was held. Both Rawal and another leader Ghanshyam Bhusal lost the election. They knew this result before the voting.
Knowing that they will not win, why Dr. Rawal and Bhusal will contest the election, the most important issue is right now. Some of the reasons behind this are obvious. That is, the 10th general convention of the CPN (UML) would have been like the Communist Party if Oli had been chosen as chairman without holding an election or by agreeing to the list submitted by Oli in closed session. The current practice in China was likely to be institutionalized in Nepal as well. The inauguration of the UML and the closed-session forum were also designed to reflect the platform of the General Convention of the Chinese Communist Party.
Leaving the leadership without protest and without going to the polls, in principle, the UML General Convention would be like the Communist Party. For the West, especially the Europeans, the election was to show the UML as a democratic party. In other words, to show that the UML has not gone beyond their sphere of influence, they moved forward Dr. Rawal and Bhusal. Due to which, it became easy to publicize that Rawal’s role was important in making the UML a democratic party. Another was to test the influence of Madhav Nepal, the chairman of the Unified Socialists, on the UML. Voting has provided a basis for estimating the number of cadres sympathetic to the unified socialists formed after the UML split. Based on the votes received by Rawal and Bhusal, the number of those who view the United Socialist in a positive way now seems to be more than 12 percent.
Based on the votes received by Bhusal and the votes received by Chairman Oli, 39 percent of the cadres are in favor of Nepal. This means that Nepal’s influence in the UML is still strong. The number of UML cadres close to them cannot be underestimated right now as they have not been able to join the technically United Socialists. On the other hand, the UML still has more than one-third of the voters against Oli.
After the transformation of 2046 BS, UML was developed as a club of non-governmental organizations. The West has invested in that. That influence extends to the lower echelon cadres of the UML. So that, the West can uses this line again. The 10th General Convention seems to have signaled the same. This is an opportunity for those who want to find their influence after the Nepal side leaves the UML.
Not only to UML but also the westerners are now trying to play an interfering role in the party’s general convention. For this, they used one in UML. Though small in favor of Rawal, they formed a public favour. Increased the number of sympathizers in favor of Rawal. As a result, Rawal seems to be Oli’s replacement instead of Ishwar Pokharel. In the days to come, Rawal’s role is as an opposition within the UML. Who will unite the UML cadres who are angry with Oli. Bhusal’s support is with him.
Due to MCC protests, Rawal’s image has developed among the general cadres as a nationalist leader. His decision to compete in the election with Oli seems to have pushed him forward as a firmed leader. On the one hand, Rawal thwarted Oli’s attempt to make the 10th general convention of the CPN (UML) omnipotent and succeeded bringing the general convention to his favour. This is a success of the West.
Oli has been the center in the UML for the last one year. In other words, the center was divided into Chitwan. Carrying the undisputed UML from Kathmandu, he returned as the leader of his faction only when he returned to Kathmandu from Chitwan. The West seems to have succeeded in preventing him from becoming the powerful chairman of the UML. In other words, the common misconception that Oli’s UML has now been shattered. There is still some memory of Madhav Nepal in the UML. That again is the smell of supporters of the west i.e. the smell of Europeans.
After UML the turn came of RPP. RPP has put forward two issues. First establishment of the constitutional monarchy. There is no opposition or support from the Europeans on this issue. They seem to be neutral on the issue of constitutional monarchy. However, they are in opposition to the RPP’s agenda for the Hindu state. Due to their investment in establishing secularism in Nepal, it seems that they have a plan to stop the establishment of Hindu state in any way.
RPP leader Kamal Thapa has been raising his voice in favor of Hindu state for a long time. Now, Rajendra Lingden has been put forward in opposition to Thapa in the RPP general convention. Linden advocates secularism. They have been arguing that RPP cannot function under Thapa’s leadership. On the other hand, Thapa is close to Oli. Oli is gradually opening up in favor of the Hindu state. Linden, on the other hand, is close to the Maoists in terms of agenda.
In the meeting of the Central Committee of the CPN (UML) held on July 3, 2021, central member Mahesh Basnet had put forward an eight-point proposal to review federalism and secularism. His proposal suggests that the UML is moving towards a Hindu state. Rawals like leaders are needed to stop that in UML. That is why Rawal remains in the UML as a loyal activist.
It seems that the westerners are in favor of Ram Chandra Poudel in the general convention of Nepali Congress to be held after the general convention of RPP. In other words, they will try to increase the number of those working in favor of Poudel even in the Central Committee to be formed from the upcoming General Convention of the Nepali Congress. Due to which Sher Bahadur Deuba can be disturbed. Deuba is more dependent on Americans than Europeans. Therefore, there seems to be more competition between the American and European sides in the Nepali Congress’s convention.
Speaking in Biratnagar on 15 December 2021, General Secretary of Nepali Congress Dr. Shashank Koirala had said, “I am in favor of Hindu Rashtra, but not against federalism. If the Congress forms the government, political stability will come. And then a referendum will be held to decide whether it will be Hindu Rashtra or secular.’ This is the reason why Koirala and Poudel, who are now close, could not find a common candidate for the upcoming general convention. Koirala is in favor of Hindu Rashtra.
The interest of the West, especially the Europeans, is to preserve secularism and federalism in Nepal at all costs. Even the senior leaders of the major parties do not seem to agree. Within the Maoists, however, there has been no controversy over the issue. If the disputes between the other parties are not managed, Nepal’s secularism and federalism will cost heavy to the Europeans. Now the country has moved forward in this direction.
Realizing the desire of the CPN-Maoist Center and the Unified Socialists to go together in the election, Nepali Congress President and Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba has gradually started searching the option of the coalition government. Discussions have started on the issue of announcing elections or running the government with the support of UML.
On November 26, UML Chairman KP Oli welcomed Prime Minister Deuba at a hotel on Narayani Bank in Chitwan. Deuba, who had gone to Chitwan to attend the inauguration ceremony of the UML General Convention, came to the stage only after holding a half-hour discussion with Oli on political issues. Oli had got on the vehicle before Deuba from hotel to go to the stage.
Deuba has become suspicious on Dahal after he became active in the discussion on the issue of impeachment of the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. Dahal has started looking for an alternative to Chief Justice Rana at the request of other Supreme Court judges to pay the price for reversing Oli’s dissolution of parliament, but Deuba still seems to be in favor of Rana. He will not go for impeachment as much as possible. Deuba is not thinking of moving ahead in this regard as passing the impeachment without the support of UML, which will affect the upcoming election as well.
UML, on the other hand, is considering impeachment of four other judges in the Constitutional Court if an impeachment is filed against Rana. However, as the process drags on, Dahal and Nepal may consider impeachment of the President. UML also blocks the way for the vice president to become acting president. Deuba is afraid to move forward from the path of impeachment as many posts will be trapped at once and will affect the system itself.
In the run-up to the last election, the Nepali Congress had filed an impeachment against the then Chief Justice Shusila Karki. The impeachment motion was rejected by the bench of Cholendra Shamsher Rana and relief was given to the Nepali Congress. As the same situation may happen now, Deuba is thinking of blocking the impeachment motion as much as possible. If the ruling coalition, including the Maoists and the Unified Socialists, is ready to move the impeachment motion against Deuba’s wishes, Deuba has no choice but to dissolve the House of Representatives and go for election. So, current politics can be seen now in this way.
On Saturday, CPN (MC) Chairman Dahal inaugurated the 4th National General Convention of the Press Center of Nepal, an association of journalists affiliated to the party, which started in Chitwan said, ‘People have done a lot of work to break this alliance. I know a lot in great detail.’ One step ahead of Chairman, spokesperson and former speaker Krishna Bahadur Mahara said that those who violated the constitution were trying to break the alliance by using foreign power. Speaking at the second municipal conference of the Maoist center Siddharth Nagar in Bhairahawa of Rupandehi on Saturday, spokesperson Mahara revealed this.
Central spokesperson Mahara’s speech has made it clear that the UML is trying to break the alliance. For that, foreign power i.e. China is being used. Earlier, four former prime ministers had also indirectly referred to China and issued a statement saying that foreign powers were involved in Nepal. According to him, UML Chairman Oli is now close to China.
The break-up of the alliance means that Deuba will run the government with Oli for one year or go for early elections. Oli is in favor of early elections. The break-up of the alliance is the announcement of the election. For this, dissolution of the House of Representatives is the only last alternative. According to the constitution, if Deuba announces early elections, there is no basis for the court to stop it.
The winter session of the parliament is starting on 14 December. Bhandari had issued six ordinances on the recommendation of the government on December 1, 24 hours before the announcement for the winter session. The intention of the government can be understood behind the issuance of the ordinance on the issue of sexual violence and acid attack which can be passed by the parliament. The MCC meeting will be held in the United States on the day of the winter session convene in Nepal. The meeting will put more pressure on Nepal to pass the MCC.
