Fourteen Chinese cities have reported natural declines in their population in 2020, including some in Northeast China but also some in more developed eastern provinces.
While reasons for the declines were different, the trend of these cities was representative of the total population, which may decline from 2022, demographers said on Thursday amid wide attention to the pending release of the seventh national population census.
Among the 14 cities that showed population falls as measured by hukou, or household registration, five are in the three Northeast China provinces, namely Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning, an old industrial area that has long faced out-migration problems.
The three provinces are at the bottom of the nation’s fertility rate ranking, statistics showed.
But some cities in the more developed eastern provinces are also facing a decline, including Wuxi in Jiangsu, Zhenjiang in Zhejiang and Weihai in Shandong.
Peng Xizhe, a professor at the School of Social Development and Public Policy under Fudan University, told the Global Times on Thursday that the fertility rate in the Northeast China is inherently low, combined with a stagnant economy that has led to out-migration. But in the eastern regions, especially the Yangtze Delta, people have a lower desire to have children, resulting in a lower natural growth rate, Peng said.
“Some cities have increasing residents despite a declining hukou population, which is attributed to tight policies on eligibility for settlement, while some have witnessed industrial transfers, which caused the out-migration of the working population,” Peng noted.
The expert predicted that the Chinese population will decline soon, but areas with better economic development will have bigger attraction for people to migrate, while smaller cities will see decreases in both total residents and the hukou population.
China’s population continued to grow in 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics said on April 29, dismissing rumors that circulated after the announcement of the seventh national census’ results was postponed.
Experts earlier predicted a population decline in 2021 or 2022, ending a five-decade trend of growth. They have called for more robust policies to encourage giving births, such as subsidies and waiving taxes.
Census takers in a residential community in Hohhot, capital of North China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, help an elderly resident (center) register her information on an electronic device on Sunday. Photo: VCG
