<strong>Prime Minister Oli has moved ahead with the Indian plan to make China fail in Nepal</strong>

Prime Minister Oli has moved ahead with the Indian plan to make China fail in Nepal

# PREM SAGAR POUDEL

Foreign Minister Pradip Gyawali’s three-day visit to India was limited to formalities. During his visit to India, Foreign Minister Gyawali could not make the Indians serious about the border dispute. On the contrary, sitting under a banner with an old ‘Buchche’ map, Minister Gyawali expressed his views.

Recently, Nepal-India relations had destroyed after India issued a map including the Nepali territory Lipulekh Limpiyadhura. India had issued a new political map on November 5, 2019 covering 335 square kilometers of Nepali land in the Kalapani region. The Government of Nepal had sent a diplomatic note to the Government of India through the embassy regarding the new map issued by India.

Amid protests in Nepal over the new map, on May 8, 2020, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh inaugurated the track of the road to Mansarovar in Tibet via Lipulekh and Kalapani of Nepal via video conference. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs had issued a statement urging the Government of India not to precede the work in the area. In a statement, India claimed the constructed road was in their land.

Nepal sent a diplomatic note requesting for talks. At Nepal’s request, India replied that talks could be held after the completion of the Covid-19 Pandemic. Instead of addressing Nepal’s interest in the issue of Indian encroachment on the Limpiyadhura area, India started avoiding problems. As a result, on 20 May 2020, the Government of Nepal issued a map covering the area encroached by India. At present, Nepal is using the same map as an official map.

Meeting failedWhile Foreign Minister Gyawali was participating in the meeting of the Nepal-India Joint Commission, the issue of dissolution of Parliament by Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli was discussed in the Supreme Court of Nepal. Foreign Minister Gyawali had visited Delhi while a group of the ruling party was on a street agitation.

For Foreign Minister Gyawali, this visit to Delhi was seen as an opportunity to internationalize Prime Minister Oli’s move rather than discussing the problems caused by India in Nepal. For this, Foreign Minister Gyawali had sought an opportunity to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Delhi. Even after staying in Delhi for three days, Modi did not welcome him.

Even though the meeting ended on Friday, Foreign Minister Gyawali landed in Kathmandu only on Saturday evening. After arriving in Kathmandu, he expressed the commitment of the Indian side to continue discussions on the Kalapani-Limpiyadhura border dispute in an appropriate mechanism. In the statement issued by India’s foreign ministry the border dispute was not mentioned.

For the last one year, the border dispute between Nepal and India has been becoming the most complicated issue. Although India does not want to discuss the border dispute, it has been active in increasing its influence in Nepal. The activism of Indians has increased after Prime Minister Oli telephoned his Indian counterpart Modi on August 15, 2020. On the occasion of India’s 74th Independence Day, Prime Minister Oli wished his Indian counterpart Modi a happy Independence Day.

In response, Prime Minister Modi thanked Oli and expressed his commitment to India’s continued support in controlling the corona, according to a statement from the Indian Ministry of External Affairs. After the telephone conversation, Indian Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Sringala, Army Chief Manoj Mukund Naravane and RAW chief Samant Kumar Goal have already visited Nepal. Everyone from India had a meeting with Prime Minister Oli. Minister Gyawali, who was on a visit to India, returned to Kathmandu only after holding courtesy talks with Defense Minister Rajnath Singh.

On January 14, Nepal’s Ambassador to India Nilambar Acharya met with Indian Army Chief of Defense Staff General Bipin Rawat. The talks focused on Foreign Minister Gyawali’s meeting with Indian Prime Minister Modi. Apart from Prime Minister Modi, Minister Gyawali also sought a meeting with National Security Advisor Ajit Doval.

Foreign Minister Gyawali wanted to meet high-ranking Indian officials and brief them on the latest developments in Nepal. As a messenger from Prime Minister Oli and President Vidyadevi Bhandari, Foreign Minister Gyawali sought to clarify to the Indian side the reason for the dissolution of the House of Representatives. In recent times, Prime Minister Oli’s desire seems to win the Indian side in confidence and move forward. Apart from the response to the recent political developments in Nepal, no message has been received from the Indian side so far. However, some Indian analysts interested in Nepal have said that India was involved in the latest incident. They argue, “The Prime Minister has gone ahead with the Indian plan to make China fail in Nepal.”

Immediately after the dissolution of the House of Representatives, China sent a high-level political mission to Nepal. The mission urged the parties to go together. One of the reasons behind this is stability. Lack of stability in Nepal is likely to affect not only the north but also the south. India does not seem to be as aware of this issue as China. However, it was a waste of time to meet with Nepali officials on the issue under consideration in the Supreme Court. Foreign Minister Gyawali seems to have returned empty-handed as the Indian authorities understood that well.

Hint:
There are many problems in Nepal-India relations now. However, border disputes are seen as the most complicated problem. This problem does not seem to be solved until the Indian side is ready to change the Indian map of encroached Nepali land. During Foreign Minister Gyawali’s visit to India, officials there have made it clear that “we cannot change our map just because you say so.”

After the meeting of the Joint Commission on Friday, Minister Gyawali addressed a program organized by the India World Relations Council. An old map of Nepal was placed on the banner behind Minister Gyawali’s podium. There is no need to talk all the things in diplomacy. Signs can also be interpreted diplomatically. This would be ok even if the map of Nepal was not used in the banner. However, the Indian side placed a map of Nepal where it was not needed. Standing on the banner with the same map, Minister Gyawali spoke on the topic of improving Nepal-India relations.

The message of the old map used by the Indian side in the banner is, “We do not accept the new map issued by you.” In other words, the message that they do not agree with the Nepali map including Lipulekh and Limpiyadhura areas seems to have been given by them without saying anything. Apart from this, the Indian side has also indicated that they do not want to move forward on the path of resolving any dispute with Nepal.

In order to increase their influence in Nepal, they are more interested in programs such as vaccination against Covid-19. They are still wondering whether such programs can change the way the general Nepali people view India. On the other hand, they are silent on the issue of supporting the current government of Nepal. One of the reasons behind this is the issue pending in the Supreme Court. If they said that they would help this government today and the court decides not to dissolve the House of Representatives tomorrow, it was clear that they would be dragged into further controversy. India did not want to get involved in this dispute.

On the other hand, the recent improvement in Nepal-India relations was not done through the diplomatic or political spheres. On the evening of 21 October 2020, Prime Minister Oli welcomed Samant Kumar Goyal, the head of the Indian intelligence agency RAW, on the red carpet in Baluwatar. Since Modi took over as Indian Prime Minister for the first time, he has kept the issue of neighborly relations out of the reach of the intelligence agency RAW. Nepal’s Prime Minister Oli, on the other hand, has tried to pave the way for improving relations between the two countries through the intelligence agency RAW. India does not want to waste time giving importance at the political or diplomatic level for the problems which could be solved from the staff level, they have made clear indications.

Here in Nepal, Madhav Kumar is playing a game of creating instability in the country in the plan of the European Union, Prachanda RAW and the Congress I, KP Oli RAW and the CIA in a dramatic reciprocity with each other and keeping China out of the political arena by not allowing it to play in Nepal’s affairs.

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