India on Monday reported its sharpest GDP contraction on record, as the economy shrank 23.9 percent in the second quarter. With the looming prospect that it may even take over the US as the global pandemic center, the Indian economy may sink deeper into the mire in the second half of the year.
Indian troops, amid the sharp economic contraction and devastating epidemic situation, once again illegally crossed the Line of Actual Control (LAC) on Monday.
The reasons behind this action include Modi administration’s intention to deflect domestic attention away from its failure to contain the virus and promote economic recovery. Also, it could be a move for India to seek bargaining chips for its negotiations with China.
India has been reporting record high daily COVID-19 cases recently. As a populous country with unsatisfactory public health facilities, the economic fallout of the virus hasn’t been fully visible yet, and the economic recovery period will be undoubtedly prolonged as long as the virus keeps spreading.
Per data from the Johns Hopkins University, India has confirmed over 3,600,000 novel coronavirus infections as of Tuesday, the country with the third-largest number of cases following the US and Brazil.
The country’s economic structure in which service sector accounts for a higher proportion also weighed on its gloomy outlook. Unlike the advanced economies, India’s service sector includes mainly low-end, labor-intensive industries. Though India has been promoting partial restart of economic activities, it has also driven up infection numbers and may form a vicious circle leading to higher economic risks.
In the meantime, New Delhi has been further deteriorating its business environment by seeking conflicts with China in economic and trade areas. Against the backdrop of dim global economic growth, it is expected that foreign investment in India will see setbacks, and further slow down its recovery pace of employment and economy.
The article was compiled based on an interview with Qian Feng, director of the research department of the National Strategy Institute at Tsinghua University. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn Global Times
