♠️ Prem Sagar Poudel
After the promulgation of the new constitution in Nepal, it was moving forward on the path of stability. It’s first step was local elections. Representatives of 150 countries, including heads of government from 28 countries, were discussing the One Belt One Road (OBOR) in Beijing, the capital of northern neighbor China, during the first round of local elections in Nepal’s three provinces on May 14, 2017.
This was not just a coincidence for Nepal. The practical use of stable politics through elections was made on the same day, 14th of May. From the same day, Nepal had the opportunity to open the door for economic development with a new role in the international arena. Ironically, to this day, Nepal has not been able to make good use of both these opportunities.
Two days earlier, on May 12, Foreign Secretary Shankar Das Bairagi and Chinese Ambassador Yu Hong signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on participation in the OBOR project in Kathmandu. Along with this, Nepal became part of the ancient Silk Road, which was launched by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013. In 2015, the Chinese Communist Party and the government decided to move the project forward. The same conference named the One Belt One Road to Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI.
“This understanding is an important step in the relationship between the two countries.” After the signing of the One Belt One Road, Foreign Minister Prakash Sharan Mahat said, “This agreement will be an important means of road and railway connectivity between Nepal and China.” China has taken the project forward with the idea of connecting through the western part to Central Asia, Europe, the Middle East and South Asia by rail. It is also seen as the modern Silk Road.
Nepal seems to have trade with China since the time of the Silk Road. Nepal used the Kaligandaki pass at that time. For Kathmandu and its environs, Kuti Road through Tatopani Sindhupalchowk and Rasuwa’s Kerung road was used. Another route from Nepalgunj to Purang via Jumla, Surkhet was in vogue. The third route was from Yunnan City of China to Nepal via Myanmar, Bangladesh and India.
From the ancient time, like land routes, China has expanded its trade to Europe by sea. Addressing the parliament in Indonesia, President Xi focused the need to connect Asia, Africa and Europe. The concept put forward by President Xi will connect the 60 developing countries on the same path. These countries make up 64 percent of the world’s population. The region has a turnover of over two thousand billion US dollars.
Upto this time, China has passed through three stages of development. Every Chinese president, including Deng Xiaoping, has pushed for reform programs. Deng introduced the concept of (Kaig Kaifa/opening up) open market. Jiang Zemin’s introduced ‘Sang Daibiyao’. His vision was to raise the level of social productive forces and make Chinese culture global. He focused on raising the living standards of the majority of the people.
President Hu Jintao introduced the concept of scientific development. President Hu’s goal was to manage the changing social, cultural and living standards of the people. Due to which the pace of development in China increased. The concept of scientific development strengthened the economic position of the Chinese. Due to which their attention was drawn towards the international market. The Chinese government has urged businessmen to invest internationally. Investors who have crossed the border of China under the slogan ‘Go Global’ are now spread all over the world.
Development along with business:
With the development of a strong economy, Chinese had the only option to internationalization their investment. At the same time, their focus was on strengthening their presence in other parts of the world. The Chinese realized at this time that prosperity alone could not be achieved. Prosperity of all the countries in this region is also the first condition for developing Asia as a center of economic development. BRI seems to have envisioned trade, utilization of raw materials and development.
The sole purpose of the OBOR is to establish China at the center of Asia, Europe and Africa in economic, social, trade and transportation. To achieve the same goal, China has put forward development projects keeping Central Asia at the center.
North and Central Asia, from Russia to Europe, from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean, from China to Southeast and South Asia, from the Indian Ocean to India, Pakistan via West Asia and from there to East Africa. Under this project, Beijing will be connected with Turkey. The economic corridor will include Russia, Iran and Iraq. Another route will be built through the South China Sea to connect Iraq with Indonesia, the Bay of Bengal, Sri Lanka, India, Pakistan and Oman. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor under construction is a part of that. The corridor is estimated to cost $ 460 million.
There are plans to build another corridor connecting Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar. Another project is underway to connect Pakistan’s Gwadar port with China’s Xiaoping. Many physical infrastructures, including road, rail and energy projects, will be built in the meantime. The China-Kazakhstan railway is under construction, which will connect China and Russia. The gas pipeline, which will extend to China, will also connect Zimbabwe via Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in Central Asia, on the OBOR network. This includes the Asian Railway, which will run from China to Europe.
However, in February 2016, train service from China to the Iranian capital Tehran began. Not only Iran but also Iraq has an ambitious goal of expanding trade through this railway. Work on the China-Pakistan highway has gained momentum at a cost of $ 460 million. The highway will be a limestone for the development of a new economic zone in Asia.
Nepal’s participation:
In the first conference of BRI held on 14th May, 2017, Nepal had not put forward any project. However, the intention was that China would have helped Nepal in the construction of Kerung-Rasuwagadhi road. In 2012, China announced that Kerung would become an international border with Nepal. The Kerung Naka, which was put forward as an alternative to Tatopani, was hit by an earthquake in 2015. Due to which China’s land relations with Nepal were severed.
With the Tatopani port closed for a long time, the Kolkata port is the only option for trade with China. Though it sounds like a very small project, Nepal’s proposal was to restore closed land connectivity with its northern neighbor. It seems that Nepal has not been able to take any benefit from this conference. The second conference, held two years after the first, was attended by the President of Nepal, Bidyadevi Bhandari.
The conference, which started on 26 April 2019, was attended by heads of state or government of 40 countries. The two-day long conference unveiled a 38-point collective commitment. The 38-point joint commitment appendix issued after the conference covered 64 different projects covering three topics.
Out of them, Nepal’s proposal was included in the 23rd of 35 projects related to economic corridor and connectivity. Annex No. 23 states, “Nepal-China Trans-Himalayan Multi-Dimensional Connectivity Network, which also includes the Nepal-China Cross Board Railway.” Nepal’s proposal was to link trans-Himalayan connectivity and railway connectivity to the BRI project.
After the conference passed Nepal’s proposal, the door was opened for Nepal to move ahead with the BRI project. So far, Nepal has not been able to take advantage of this opportunity. The agreement was also done during the Prime Minister KP Oli’s visit to China to move the BRI project forward. During his visit to China in March 2016, Prime Minister Oli had agreed to move the BRI project forward.
Many of the programs included in the joint statement issued during the visit to China in June 2018 have not started yet. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping has also visited Nepal. Sisterhood relation has developed between the Chinese Communist Party and the Nepal Communist Party (NCP). It seems that Nepal has not been able to address China’s interest in the management of the Covid-19 epidemic, which started in late 2019.
On 27 April 2020, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone conversation with his Nepali counterpart Bhandari. Apart from Covid, the talks focused on the consensus program between the two countries. A video meeting was also held between the CPC and the NCP (NCP) on the issue of co-operation and mutual assistance. Despite all these efforts, it is unfortunate that Nepal’s priority in seeking assistance from the BRI is not seen.
Long-term thought is needed to move BRI forward. Areas connected to the BRI network need to be developed as industrial belts. Roads, i.e. BRI, along with connectivity, demand belts, i.e. industrial areas. The project envisages business along with development. The government is not yet clear on how Nepal can benefit from this project, which is aimed at opening the door to the international market. There is a need for greater interaction on this issue.
With the cooperation with China, there is talk of railways. It will take some time for Chinese trains to arrive in Nepal. The time for the Chinese to bring trains from Shigatse to Kerung in China has been extended to 2025 from 2020. It will take another few years for the Kerung train to connect Kathmandu. For that, Nepal’s preparation is a very crucial issue. Looking at the current situation, there is not much interest in Nepal’s railways or interest is declining. The only reason for this is investment.
Along with the preparation of the railway, it is necessary to speed up the work of opening the north-south route. In the current situation, it is necessary for Nepal to focus on the operation of other routes besides Tatopani and Kerung. It is too late for Nepal to start preparing for the establishment of easy access to the port to benefit from the use of the five ports provided by China. No matter what the railways or roads are, after all, the only way to get money is to sell our products. If not, it cannot be said that with the expansion of trade with China will be imbalance trade like India.
The concept of BRI is that the production of road connected belts should be able to return the investment. In other words, only the product made by the belt attached to the road ensures the return of investment. Chinese President Xi Jinping has said that debt is not the only issue. Wherever the connectivity is reached, there should be some product. Let the product go to the international market.’ It should not be forgotten that BRI will make us a part of the international market.
Nepal’s potential:
China wants to bring Nepal together in BRI. In other words, China’s interest in Nepal’s development has increased. One of the reasons for this is the connected border between Nepal and Tibet. They realize that some of the activities taking place in Nepal affect China’s security. Especially due to the issue of independent Tibet, Nepal’s sensitivity has increased. Geographically, it is important matter for Nepal to take advantage of this opportunity.
For this, first of all, government level initiative is needed.
The government has a clear vision on how to take advantage of their market rather than entangle China. The government’s approach needs to be clear on the study of the project, from financial management to operation. At the same time, the environment of the mountainous region is the most important. It is too late for the state to formulate a clear policy on how to move the project forward by protecting it.
Many now think that India is angry with Nepal’s relationship with China. Due to this thinking, Nepal has not been able to utilize the opportunities it can get from China. India is also looking for the market. They should be told that because of Nepal, you can have easy access to the market with China. States including Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Himachal Pradesh of India can easily connect to the Chinese market through Nepal. As a result, their products can be easily accessed internationally. Why don’t we start arguing about this benefit?
Overall, there are two things we can do connecting with BRI. These two tasks seem to make it easier for us to work with China on other issues.
A) Construction of physical infrastructure:
Why is Nepal depended more towards India than China? The simple answer to this question is, there was no easy access to China, but there is easy access to India. Due to which, Nepal became more dependent on India. On the other hand, it is still not easy to cross the northern mountains and go to China. Therefore, the construction of infrastructure to connect with the north is the first task. These include rail, road, electricity transmission lines, telephone or internet lines, and airports.
B) Production of goods for sale:
Nepal was connected to the BRI corridor, or the Chinese market became easily accessible to Nepalese due to physical infrastructure. How can Nepal benefit in this situation? For this, Nepal has to start producing goods for sale. Now we even import Gundruk from China and eat. This is the story of our dependence. There are many products in such a story. It is too late to list such products. It is too late for all three levels of government to expand their potential products in Nepal and explore international markets. Production can be increased by constructing industrial parks in the BRI corridor. This is another important task for sustainable development.
C) Indo-West Influence:
Indo-West’s investment and influence in Nepal’s politics and political parties is widespread. If China’s BRI is to move forward with urgency, the government will be overthrown or reshuffled prematurely. If the BRI moves forward successfully, the plans of India and the West will fail. India considers Nepal as its own zone, while the US-Europeans are planning to divide South Tibet making base to Nepal. No matter which leader or government of Nepal has followed the one-China policy or no matter how many treaties have been signed, the implementation is almost nil. Whatever has happened cannot be considered progress. Although Chinese influence in Nepal seems to be growing, in fact most of the projects are growing on the basis of Western plans and interests. Writing like this may not look cool, but the reality is here.
The Chinese plane trade agreement can be taken as an example of a big project in Nepal. It was purchased with a loan from a Chinese bank at a concessional interest rate. It has been shown that the Chinese plane has broken down due to lack of proper management, which is causing millions of rupees in losses. This has led to a decline the public faith and rise the suspicion towards China and Chinese people. The construction deal of Pokhara International Airport was handed over to a Chinese company with many negative messages and widespread obstruction. The contract of Budhi Gandaki Hydropower was given to a Chinese company Gejuwa following a controversial process and was later rejected. Through the big projects of China, the people of Nepal are being misguided to create an environment that destroys the trust and faith towards Chinese. Overall, Chinese companies are not good, Chinese products are low quality, Chinese are using corrupt leaders to increase their influence in poor countries, including Nepal, spreading the message through Nepal’s heads of government, political party leaders and high-ranking officials. Its victims have also been the Belt and Road Initiative.
D) Reasons why the Belt and Road Initiative did not move forward easily:
In order to influence Nepal’s politics, the Indo-Western government has been increasing economic and other cooperation with the government, the leaders of the political parties in the government, the leaders of the main opposition parties, high-ranking officials, journalists and so on. China has always seemed to value only the government and those in government. Compared to others, Chinese assistance and investment in Nepal’s media is almost nil. On the one hand, the influence of the Indo-West remains the same and on the other hand, the fact that the Chinese only give importance to the government does not seem to increase China’s influence evenly. China’s true friendship, support and assistance is not being properly communicated to the Nepalese people. One of the reasons is the inability to inform Nepal and Nepalis about the multifaceted cooperation and relations between China and Nepal and the inability to involve the Nepali media in this campaign. Due to which, the BRI is not able to move forward.
In order to move the BRI forward, it is necessary to inform the people about the benefits of moving the BRI forward as well as diplomatic initiatives. It is important to point out that BRI is a tool for Nepal’s prosperity. The leaders of Nepal’s political parties are not convinced of this.
E) Nepali leaders about BRI:
In the bilateral meeting between Nepal and China, all the Nepali leaders said that the BRI is very good and they have said that they are ready to implement it. But, In practice they are just opposite to it.
Are all Nepali leaders traitor?
In fact, they seem to be doing it out of compulsion rather than dishonesty and honesty. What is compulsion? Nepal’s election process is very expensive. Getting a party ticket like in China does not guarantee the victory. To win the election, you have to spend money and muscles. The one who can use the much money and muscle will win the election. It is an open secret that the Indo-West manages Nepal’s political parties and their leaders. Leaders win elections and form governments. In their speech, they repeated to fulfill his commitment to the country and the people. However, since the government has been formed, they have to work in the interest of the investors and they can never fulfill their promise to the people. This is the reality.
If Nepal and Nepali politicians cannot be uplifted from the current situation, then no one can stop Nepal from becoming an arena of anti-China. For this, China should help its allies to form a government by including them and help to move forward. Only then Nepal will be stable and calm and projects including BRI will be able to move forward easily.
In the end, it is necessary to think and explain the issue of ‘Prosperity does not come without increasing production’. Focusing on developing the north-south highways under construction as economic corridors is the basis of Nepal’s prosperity. It seems that the concept of economic development should be enhanced with the idea of what the train coming from China or India will take from Nepal.
A famous Chinese story, for example, is enough to understand how sincere and supportive the Chinese are who help and support them in need. According to the story, a king of old China was saved by the Ginko Oak tree when he was attacked by the enemy. When the enemy chased him, the king and queen were saved by hiding in the tree of Oak. Ginko, who saved the king and queen from the enemy at that time, is still worshiped and revered by the Chinese. We need to understand in time to Chinese, who are rich in prosperous civilizations, and move towards implementing the Belt and Road Initiative put forward by President Xi, so that we can truly build Nepal on the favor of development, prosperity and regional stability.
