By Li Kaisheng Source:Global Times
Early results suggested Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s allies claiming victory in the May 13 midterm elections, winning nine of the 12 Senate seats, according to media reports.
Several factors played a role in the results.
In traditional Philippine politics and culture, when the public elects a president, they usually support Senate candidates allied with the president.
Many of Duterte’s policies have not been fully implemented. Filipino voters expect them to be carried out during the remaining years of his tenure. Now that Duterte’s allies obtain the majority of Senate seats, this should make it easier to implement his policies.
Since the country’s security problems have deteriorated, Duterte has tried to resume capital punishment, which was suspended in 2006.
The death penalty halt is partly responsible for the increase in crime.
Duterte’s desire to re-impose the death penalty has faced opposition. If Duterte’s supporters control the Senate, the death penalty could be resumed.
Duterte wants to implement a federal form of government, granting local governments more power, especially in underdeveloped areas, to ensure a balanced development. With control of the Senate, this could also materialize.
During Duterte’s next three years in office, economic and social policies will continue on course, such as “Build Build Build,” a program aimed at accelerating infrastructure constructions.
On foreign relations, Duterte’s policy framework is already in place and focused on balancing between China and the US. His biggest challenge will be to maintain this balance as his policy to pursue friendly ties with China has been challenged by opposition forces, who have continuously piled pressure on the Duterte administration.
In 2016, after Duterte took office, he reversed former president Benigno Aquino’s foreign policy toward China and the US, and Philippine policy on the South China Sea.
The Aquino administration was on US side in terms of the maritime issue and held a provocative attitude toward China. Duterte claimed to keep a distance with Washington and set aside the South China Sea arbitration, to maintain close ties with China.
Duterte attended the second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in Beijing in April, marking his fourth visit to China in three years, revealing closer interaction with China. Since taking office, Duterte has yet to visit the US.
Duterte’s pragmatic foreign policy stems from his belief – Manila cannot afford a confrontation with Beijing in the South China Sea. Another reason could be his political ideas. Based on his actions, he could be considered as a leftist and tend to learn from China’s experiences on development and infrastructure constructions.
Over the next three years, no significant changes are expected in Beijing-Manila ties, but the Philippines might make some moves.
China-US relations have deteriorated. Would the trade war open up new battlefields? Will the US push its allies, including the Philippines, to provoke China? Even Duterte might be influenced.
According to NHK, Japan’s national public broadcaster, coast guards of the Philippines and the US conducted a joint search and rescue drill near disputed waters in the South China Sea on May 14. Washington could put pressure on Manila, while pro-US forces in the Philippines would respond.
Domestic opposition would have many options and could urge Duterte to cite the South China Sea arbitration ruling against China.
Under such circumstances, Duterte could adopt a few measures in response, which would show his commitment to safeguarding national interests.
Duterte enjoys a high approval rating based on mid-term election results. As long as the pressure does not exceed the limits, he will control the situation and Beijing-Manila ties will continue to stay on the current stable path.
The author is deputy director and research fellow at the Institute of International Relations, the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn
