“China commercial fleet to more than double” due to tourism boom, said Boeing, garnering significant attention with its latest prediction for the Chinese civil aviation market. According to Boeing’s Commercial Market Outlook released on Tuesday, China is projected to more than double its commercial airplane fleet by 2043, reaching 9,740 airplanes. China’s annual passenger traffic growth of 5.9 percent will exceed the global average of 4.7 percent, and China’s freighter fleet will nearly triple with demand stimulated by its booming e-commerce sector. The president of Boeing China previously stated in a media interview that Boeing considers the China market a top priority and is optimistic about its growth in the next 20 years. The latest forecast further reflects Boeing’s optimistic expectations for the Chinese civil aviation market.
It’s not just Boeing that is optimistic about and betting on China’s civil aviation market. In Airbus’ recently released 2023-2042 Global Market Forecast, China’s annual passenger traffic growth rate over the next 20 years is projected to reach 5.2 percent, nearly twice the global average, with demand for new aircraft exceeding 9,000. Both Boeing and Airbus predict that in the next 20 years, China will become the world’s largest aviation services market. Civil aviation is often referred to as the “barometer” of a nation’s economy, and the growth rate of civil aviation is considered closely linked to the growth rate of the national economy. The nearly unanimous optimism of the two major civil aviation giants about the China market serves as a vivid and accurate indicator of China’s economic potential.
In the first half of this year, China’s civil aviation industry recorded 350 million passenger trips, a year-on-year increase of 23.5 percent and a 9.0 percent increase compared with the same period in 2019, reflecting a more concrete manifestation of this indicator. Beyond civil aviation, other travel data, such as railways, also showed strong growth. As of August 25, during the summer travel season, China’s national railway system has carried 802 million passenger trips, a 6.2 percent year-on-year increase. These solid travel figures show the huge domestic consumption market supported by China’s population of over 1.4 billion, the recovery and vitality of China’s consumer confidence, and the driving force of China’s economic pulse.
Boeing and Airbus’ optimistic outlook stems from their accurate grasp of China’s economic fundamentals and the steady, positive trend. China is becoming fertile ground for global civil aviation development, thanks to its massive scale, high-quality industrial and supply chains, highly skilled talents, and high levels of opening-up. Airbus’ second production line in Tianjin is under construction in full swing, not only attracting many international suppliers to settle in China, but also enhancing the global supply capabilities through integration with the Chinese industrial chain. On August 28, China’s COMAC delivered its domestically-produced C919 aircraft to Air China and China Southern Airlines. With China Eastern Airlines already successfully operating the C919, the three major domestic airlines have now had domestically-produced large aircraft. Boeing, Airbus, and COMAC are expected to write a story of healthy competition and work together to expand the market in China.
The cake of China’s aviation industry can indeed be made even bigger. On one hand, the potential of the Chinese market is still among the best in the world. By the end of 2025, the number of aviation passengers in China is expected to exceed 400 million. The low-altitude economy, including traditional general aviation formats, is thriving in China. With the increasing demand from the general public for logistics and other services, it is developing into a new trillion-dollar industry.
On the other hand, the rapid development of China’s industrial transformation and upgrading, the deepening and solidifying of the Belt and Road Initiative cooperation, and the rapid growth of new formats such as cross-border e-commerce have also brought rare historical opportunities to the international aviation logistics industry.
Whether it is Boeing, Airbus and other companies’ optimistic expectations for the future of China’s aviation industry for the next 20 years, or global companies, including German companies, continuing to increase investments in China, it is a good perspective to understand the true potential of the current Chinese economy.
For some time, some people have developed complex or even pessimistic emotions about the potential of the Chinese economy. However, the more complicated it is, the more it is necessary to return to the economic fundamentals, and the more clearly and accurately we can see the resilience, vitality, and potential of the Chinese economy in various aspects. The Chinese market will continue to share the dividends of China’s development with the world, and all companies willing to abide by Chinese rules, grow in the Chinese market, and make the cake bigger together with China will be sincerely welcomed.
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