# Prem Sagar Poudel
The ties of the imperialists also cannot defeat the nationalist citizens. Look at Afghanistan, fought for 22 years – under the flag of NATO. Now they are returning after losing. But the country was pushed back 1000 years. In this way they succeed in showing themselves developed and ruling the world. They have destroyed China in history, sometimes through the British-led Opium War, sometimes through the French War, sometimes through the Japanese War, and sometimes through the Portuguese War. But the weak China of that time has now succeeded in proving itself to the world by its own strength, not by killing anyone. By embracing the saying, “Winning a war without spending a single gallon is a successful warrior”, of Sun Tzu; China is pursuing a policy of equality, coexistence, and equality to advance the destiny and future of the world human community, which the violent imperialists have not digested. Therefore, even though this imperialism is imposing war and sacking China, it is trying to maintain its dominance. The character of capitalist imperialism is as follows: to make quarrel in another’s house, then to settle a quarrel under the pretext of entering that house and not to return until it has been completely looted and stripped naked. Due to the greedy and sinful leaders and high-ranking officials, the situation of Nepal and Nepalese seems to be moving in the same direction.
The Supreme Court is currently debating the writ petition seeking the appointment of Sher Bahadur Deuba as the Prime Minister. The lawyers are still debating in favor of the writ in the debate that started on 9th Ashadh. Looking at the debate so far, the government of Chief Justice Cholendra Shamsher Rana has shown more interest in the matter of the vote of confidence.
This is the question that Chief Justice Rana has been asking since the first day of the debate. In other words, the current state of confusion has been created by a letter written by Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli to the President’s Office on 6th Jeshth. Prime Minister Oli had written a letter to President Vidyadevi Bhandari to start the process for the appointment of another Prime Minister, saying that he had paved the way for the lack of confidence in the House of Representatives.
The Constitutional Court has tried to explain the issues related to the formation of the government which are not clear in the constitution of Nepal. The possible form of these explanations can be explained in this way.
1. Use of Article 76 (3):
Article 76 (3) applies when there is no possibility of forming a majority government. Under this section, the leader of the largest party in the House of Representatives will be the Prime Minister. Thus, a person who becomes the Prime Minister must get a vote of confidence from the House of Representatives within 30 days. Not only this, the provision regarding the formation of government in the constitution has given the House of Representatives the right to decide on the calculation of the parliamentarians. Not only has the formation of the government but also the issue of the government being in the minority depended on the numbers of the House of Representatives.
Looking at Article 76 (3), it is easy to be clear about Prime Minister Oli. Appointed as the Prime Minister with a majority under 76 (2), Oli decided to take a vote of confidence in the House of Representatives. With Prime Minister Oli’s decision, the Maoists withdrew their support. After failing to get a vote of confidence in the House of Representatives, he was appointed Prime Minister as the leader of the largest party. Oli did not pay attention to the vote of confidence that should have been taken within 30 days. Within a week of being appointed Prime Minister, he wrote a letter to the president, to give up the post.
Should the Prime Minister appointed under Article 76 (3) take a vote of confidence as per Article 76 (4)? At present, the bench, especially Chief Justice Rana, is more focused on this issue. Legal practitioners arguing in favor of petition seem to be trying to avoid this question as much as possible. They seem to be more focused on appointing Deuba as the Prime Minister as per Article 76 (5). Advocates are involved in the plan to declare Deuba as the Prime Minister from the court.
Prime Minister Oli’s mistake is not to get a vote of confidence from the House of Representatives. The court can correct the mistake in all these procedures from here. In doing so, the court may order the House of Representatives to take a vote of confidence for a specified period. In this case, the ball reaches Oli’s court once again. Oli’s 93-member House of Representatives, including Nepal-Khanal and Mahanta Thakur, could give Oli a vote of confidence. In such a situation, it seems that the Nepal-Khanal MPs who are thinking of keeping the UML united can give a vote of confidence to Oli. This means that such a court decision will also help unify the UML. In other words, it easily paves the way for division.
2. Use of Section 76 (5):
The court also needs an explanation on the use of this section. If the government formed under Article 76 (3) does not get the vote of confidence of the House of Representatives within 30 days, a government under Article 76 (5) will be formed. It seems that the court has to explain the status of the member of the House of Representatives in the government to be formed in this way. At present, the lawyers arguing in favor of the petitioner seem to have paid more attention to the subject of this section.
There are two views on the use of this section. The first is the concept of an independent person, an independent parliamentarian. According to this concept, the prime minister of the government formed under section 76 (3) and the parliament supporting him are also independent. In other words, these MPs are independent as a party. Such an interpretation imagines party less system. This interpretation paves the way for the appointment of Deuba as Prime Minister. On the other hand, if one does not imagine party less, Article 76 (5) can be interpreted on the basis of independent party support.
Suppose the parties in the House of Representatives do not trust each other. And there is no possibility of going to the polls. In such a situation, an independent parliamentarian can take the country out of the crisis by uniting all the parties. In such a case, the parties can give a vote of confidence to such an MP. At present, Oli has a letter from the UML parliamentary party. He has also taken a letter signed by the chairman of JSP and the leader of the parliamentary party. In such a situation, how can UML and JSP MPs support Deuba? If the independent person is interpreted as party support, Deuba’s claim is automatically rejected.
3. The President’s interest in Article 76 (5):
The issue of discretion of the President in forming the government as per Article 76 (5) has also become a matter of interpretation in the court. The issue of whether or not to use the President’s discretion in the absence of parliamentary number for the appointment of the Prime Minister is a matter of controversy. According to this article, there is no alternative to going to the people if the person appointed by the Prime Minister is not able to take the country forward. The various reasons behind such a situation also demand a fresh mandate. Even if the Prime Minister appointed under Article 76 (5) runs the country for some time, there may be a compelling situation of having to go to the polls ahead of schedule due to lack of other possibilities. In that case, time is wasted. Therefore, this section seeks the discretion of the President.
Overall, three interpretations seem to be gaining if favor of Oli’s side.
1. Restoring Parliament but giving time to get vote of confidence. That is, to issue an order to convene the parliament within a given period and take a vote of confidence.
2. Our constitution has sought a party system. Members of the House of Representatives are not independent in forming a government. Interpretation of Article 76 (5) that one must obey the party’s whip.
3. The President also has the discretionary power over Article 76 (5). In other words, a government can be formed according to this article only if the President believes in it and not only on the basis of what someone says.
4. In the current situation, the announcement made by the President is correct. In other words, the announcement of the election is right. An order can also be issued that the court cannot take the responsibility to protect the Constituent Assembly forever. All these matters depend on the decision of the judge in the bench.
In the midst of such possibilities, it seems necessary to look at whose court the ball is. Before understanding the thinking of the players in the current political situation in Nepal, it is necessary to understand whose influence has moved forward. In other words, the common goal of this war is federalism. That is, the important question now is whether the changes that have taken place since the establishment of the republic are truly sustainable, which can be seen in this way.
Federalism of European:
The current model of federalism in Nepal is made by the Europeans. The Constituent Assembly has only applauded. It has been said that the state government is not necessary in the short run of the federal structure. In other words, the current federalism has failed to some extent. This is a failure even of the constitution. This failure seems to have cost the West, especially the Europeans, the most. The issue of secularism is also in dispute now. Oli could ask for a referendum on federalism and secularism.
In the meeting of the General Committee of the Nepali Congress held in Mansir, 2075 BS, the issue of Hindu state was signed by 800, the majority of the participants. The upcoming general convention of the Nepali Congress seems to be heating up on this issue. Many members of the General Committee who signed at that time said that the issue would be resolved by the General Assembly. Due to the pressure of the cadres, the Nepali Congress is likely to decide on the issue of Hindu nation from the upcoming General Assembly.
The failure of the issue of federalism and secularism in Nepal is a failure of the Europeans. Only after a long period of investment they succeeded in getting the parties to agree on this issue. In the run-up to Oli’s election, India and China are likely to support him to come in the favor of to throw federalism and secularism from Nepal. That is why the Europeans want to continue the House of Representatives by stopping the elections. Their hold or influence in the courts, lawyers, civil society, journalists and non-governmental organizations seems to facilitate the decision on this issue.
Oli had issued a citizenship ordinance to get the Janata Samajwadi Party’s Mahanta Thakur group to join the government. The Interim Constitution of Nepal-2063 BS had paved the way for citizenship for Indians living in Nepal. The current ordinance seems to have attempted to institutionalize citizenship in the name of the mother. This agenda belongs to the Europeans and not to the Indians. Now Supreme Court Judge Sapna Malla is the leader of the campaign.
It was Sapna Malla who helped spread European influence in the court. She was assisted by the then Chief Justice Laxman Aryal. Lately, Kalyan Shreshth has been working in the court on the behalf of the Europeans. The order not to implement the Citizenship Bill immediately indicates that the court is slowly escaping from European influence.
In such a case, if the decision to go to the polls is reversed by the court, the Europeans will benefit the most. They want to destabilize Nepal to advance their agenda. Now Nepal is on the path of instability. This is proved by the fact that Madhav Nepal is now a character of everyone’s need. Leader Nepal has been praised in all the programs held in the name of the opposition alliance. Deuba and Dahal praise Nepal. After Nepal, another character to be praised is Upendra Yadav.
Nepal and Yadav are the two characters who created the recent political situation. Nepal is thinking of not agreeing with Oli as much as possible. In other words, the Europeans do not want to create a situation where Nepal can get along with Oli. If this happens, there can be stability in Nepal. As a result, their dream does not come true. The United States opposes it.
MCC of America:
The United States does not need to advocate federalism in Nepal. Nor interested in secularism. It has invested in Buddhism through the Tibetans as well as in Hinduism through ISKCON. In other words, they are thinking of softening the Hindus. Even if a pro-India Hindu state is declared in Nepal, the Americans will still benefit, because America has already built Radhe Radhe and Shrikrishna branches in Hinduism. Among the Hindus, pro-Americans are worshiping Radhe Radhe and Krishna. So Americans are more interested in MCC right now. Deuba, who is in favor of MCC, and Dahal-Nepal, who are in opposition, are now in the same place. This is just an equation made out of selfishness. It is not possible to predict when the issue of MCC will unite Deuba and Oli.
Deuba is now thinking of becoming the Prime Minister anyhow. The day after Dahal’s speech in Dhading, the court dismissed the ministers appointed by Oli. Dahal had said that the ministers appointed by Oli in Dhading would be removed by the court soon. This incident also seems to have worked to convince Deuba that Dahal has influence over the court. Due to the lawyers on the Nepal side, the members of the Constitutional bench changed. This was the power of Nepal that Deuba did not know.
The development of Deuba’s thinking to remove Oli anyhow is due to the continuous efforts of Dahal and Nepal. Yadav has been adding confidence to their thinking. Dahal-Nepal camp cannot be Deuba’s permanent residence. The Dahal-Nepal faction, which thinks that a good result can be brought in the election with Deuba, does not believe in the organization themselves. Nepal does not even have the confidence to leave the UML and form a party. As a result, Nepal and Dahal are more optimistic towards Deuba. Only after a court decision the future of their alliance can be clear.
The United States does not seem to be expanding its influence in Nepal right now. His only concern is to protect the influence that has spread to the local level. When Taiwan was aided vaccines against corona, the US ignored the Tibetans in Nepal. It has become a distant matter to take care of Nepalese. So the US seems to be sitting very close to this game. As a spectator, America has started watching the Europeans’ game in Nepal closely.
Formula to Protect Oli:
Oli now seems to need India and China more than the United States. The issue of Hinduism and federalism is a major concern of India. It would be in India’s best interest to remove these two issues from Nepal’s constitution. In the current situation, this work is not possible until Deuba and Oli meet. Therefore, reducing the growing distance between Deuba and Oli is a priority now. On the other hand, the relationship between Nepal and Dahal also needs to be broken.
As Oli and Deuba get closer, Dahal becomes weaker. The current alliance is falling apart. Until Dahal is left alone, Nepal’s politics will not find a way out. Deuba has been relying more on Dahal in recent times. For the past few days, Deuba seems to have given equal priority to Nepal. On Saturday, 11th Ashadh, Deuba also praised Nepal as a combatant friend. They are working to create an environment where Nepal will not return to UML.
With Dahal’s company, the future of the Nepali Congress won’t be very good. It is not easy for Deuba to reconstitute the House of Representatives and go to the polls no matter what the court decides. Apart from the US, India and China will not help him much. Due to his leadership in passing the MCC, the situation ahead is not easy even when the court has given Deuba the post of the Prime Minister. Therefore, the current battle seems to be more focused on who will lead the mid-term elections.
If the court reconstitutes the House of Representatives with a vote of confidence, Oli will be empowered. If he plays the game wisely, Oli will be able to lead the election government. This is a quick option for those who are trying to save Oli in the current situation.
